Regrading 3 big Phillies offseason moves after the first month of the season
How have the Phillies' three biggest offseason moves turned out so far this season?
The Philadelphia Phillies made several moves during the offseason to help bolster the team’s chances of winning this season and hopefully beyond.
While they made plenty of depth moves, the two biggest transactions involved maintaining their 1-2 punch in the starting rotation for the near future by re-signing Aaron Nola and extending Zack Wheeler. They also recruited a veteran star utilityman in Whit Merrifield to help boost their offensive potential off the bench.
How have these significant moves been paying off for the Phillies thus far in the 2024 season? Let's revisit and regrade those transactions based on how they have turned out compared to our previous expectations.
Regrading the Phillies' Whit Merrifield free agent signing
The biggest move for the Phillies in the free agent market this past offseason was the addition of veteran utilityman Whit Merrifield.
Merrifield was coming off a big bounce-back season with the Toronto Blue Jays in 2023, in which he batted .272 with a .700 OPS, 66 runs scored, 27 doubles, 11 home runs, 67 RBI and 26 stolen bases in 145 games. Signed to a one-year deal worth only $8 million, he has the ability to play all over the field while hitting anywhere in the lineup, making him a very versatile and solid pickup for the Phillies.
Despite his flexibility, expectations still needed to be somewhat tempered coming into the year. The 35-year-old noticeably struggled down the stretch last season. That poor finish, plus his age, points to any potential outcome being possible this season with the Phillies. This also explains why they were able to obtain him at such a value price.
Merrifield put together an impressive spring training, compiling a stellar .405 batting average and 1.143 OPS over 16 games and signaling that he was ready to make an impact with the ballclub. But so far, during the regular season, he hasn’t seen as much playing time as expected.
When he has played, he has posted some paltry numbers. In 14 games (12 starts), he's hitting only .209 with a .547 OPS, a 54 OPS+, five runs scored, one home run and two RBI. The more telltale story was the fact that even when Johan Rojas, Nick Castellanos, and, to some extent, Bryson Stott were all struggling out of the gate, it didn't result in Merrifield garnering steady playing time despite his proven track record.
As a result, his potential impact with the club is still in question, but initial results have been quite disappointing compared to what we expected from the three-time All-Star. If he fails to turn things around soon, this could become an offseason failure for the Phillies.
We originally graded the Whit Merrifield signing B+, but now give it a grade of D after one month of play.
Original Grade: B+
Current Grade: D
Regrading the Phillies' Aaron Nola re-signing
When the Phillies re-signed team ace Aaron Nola to a huge seven-year, $172 million contract, it seemed like an obvious move for both sides but brought up some mixed reactions. On the one hand, bringing back one of the most durable pitchers in the game, who's the heart and soul of the team, could do wonders to help continue the Phillies' winning culture for years to come.
On the other hand, Nola has entered the wrong side of 30. He has posted an ERA above 4.00 in two of his past three seasons and gave up hard contact by allowing the most home runs of his career in a single season last year. As a result, should we worry about whether the long-term contract could eventually become an albatross near the latter half of his contract years if he doesn’t end up living up to the deal?
Nola has undoubtedly put some of that doubt to rest for the time being with his performance so far in 2024. On the year, he's 4-1 with a solid 3.20 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with 36 strikeouts in 39 1/3 innings pitched. He has reverted to his dominant form, as seen in his earlier years with the Phillies. On top of that, he has also been clutch, helping the Phillies with bounce-back victories following a loss in three of his six starts this season.
If Nola can continue to deliver the way he has for the Phillies for the rest of this year and beyond and help them succeed in the regular and postseason, he'll push his grade up to an A. But for now, the Phillies are reaping the benefits of his hot start and are currently keeping pace in close competition with the Atlanta Braves in the battle for the NL East title.
We originally graded Aaron Nola's re-signing B- but upgraded it to B+ after the first month of the season.
Original Grade: B-
Current Grade: B+
Regrading the Phillies' Zack Wheeler contract extension
While Nola's doing his job early on, the Phillies are also reaping the rewards of extending the services of their other ace, Zack Wheeler, this offseason, signing him to a three-year, $126 million extension.
Wheeler has been the perfect example of dominating consistency since joining the team in 2020. As a Phillie, Wheeler has compiled a stellar 45-28 record while never sporting an ERA above 3.61 or a WHIP above 1.17 in any season. His elite performance has earned him an All-Star nod and seen him finish as a Cy Young finalist in 2021. In addition, Wheeler ranks in the top five in ERA, wins, FIP, WHIP and innings pitched among starting pitchers with at least 100 starts since 2020.
Having Wheeler for at least the next three seasons extends the Phillies' contention window. Finalizing the extension early shows that both Wheeler and the Phillies are committed to winning, giving themselves the best possible chance at a World Series championship.
So far in 2024, Wheeler has been holding up his end of the bargain, providing full value to the team just one month into the season. He currently possesses a sparkling 1.93 ERA, 211 ERA+ and 0.88 WHIP while leading the NL in strikeouts with 46 in just 37 1/3 innings pitched. If it hadn’t been for a lack of run support and some bad luck, he could be sporting a 5-0 record instead of his current 2-3 mark. He has put himself in the conversation as the early NL Cy Young Award favorite.
If Wheeler continues his dominance throughout the season and finally helps lead the Phillies to a World Series title or two in the coming years, we can change the grade to a well-deserved A+. For now, he keeps his A grade despite meeting almost all of the lofty expectations early and perhaps even a bit more.
We originally graded Zack Wheeler's extension an A, and we'll keep it that way until we see the outcome of this season.
Original Grade: A
Current Grade: A
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