After months of building up to it, the Philadelphia Phillies have finally clinched a first-round bye in the MLB postseason for the first time in team history. They'll play out the string of the regular season and then be rewarded with five days off before opening their playoff run in the NLDS at Citizens Bank Park on Saturday, Oct. 5.
There's a lot to be determined before then of course, the most important being the answer to the question, "Who's it gonna be?" Because of teams jockeying for positioning, the Phillies find themselves very unsure of their initial opponent. Things will be whittled down just a few days from now but, at the current moment, it's worth taking a look at each of the five clubs who could present the initial hurdle to the Phillies in their 2024 championship quest.
Ranking Phillies' potential NLDS opponents for the 2024 MLB playoffs
We will rank the teams in order, from which opponent the Phillies would most like to face to whom they would least like to battle in the NLDS. To be clear, none of these series would be easy. But you've got to play somebody, and you've got to beat them to advance.
5. Arizona Diamondbacks
Revenge would be on the Phillies' minds in a rematch of last year's NLCS when the Phillies let the slightly above-average D-Backs off the hook, inexcusably blowing a 3-1 lead in a series they had no business losing. And even though appearances can be deceiving, Arizona looks like even less of a threat this year. Their top two starters have had uneven, injury-filled seasons, and ascending star Corbin Carroll has taken a step back.
They are still a dangerous club that could triumph in a short series (and they went 4-3 against the Phillies this year), but they are a team that the Phillies should objectively beat considering that they have to win a round first and the Phillies have time to set their rotation and get their house in order exactly how they want it.
4. Milwaukee Brewers
Coasting to a division title in the subpar NL Central, not many would have picked the Brewers to win 90+ games this year after dealing ace Corbin Burnes in the offseason. But monster seasons from Willy Adames and William Contreras, along with a fantastic rookie year from phenom Jackson Chourio, have carried the offense and supported a nondescript but overall effective pitching staff.
Milwaukee's lack of a true ace could and should be a difference-maker to tilt a series in the Phillies' favor. The Phillies went 4-2 against the Brewers this year, which doesn't always translate into the postseason, but everyone seems to realize that the Phillies are simply the better-equipped playoff team and most likely would show it in a head-to-head clash with the Brew Crew.
ESPN ranked the Phillies #1 in the playoff power rankings. Hell of a season. pic.twitter.com/GVdVm7EzhR
— PHLY Phillies (@PHLY_Phillies) September 26, 2024
3. New York Mets
As much as people would like to think that "Mets gonna Met" and that their October failure is imminent, they've put together an impressive run after getting out of the gate horribly this year. Francisco Lindor is putting together a "notch-just-below-MVP-level" season, the offense is balanced overall, and the rotation has been surprisingly solid. And then there's the Acuña factor, as Ronald Jr.'s little bro Luisangel has looked fantastic since his recent call-up. Could he become this generation's Andruw Jones, a youngster who goes supernova in his first playoff action? And do the Phillies really want to find out?
Before we go praising the Mets too much, the Phillies are a better team pound-for-pound, although they went just 7-6 against New York this year. These two teams have never met in the playoffs somehow, and this would be an all-out war 60 years in the making. You know what? Bring it.
2. San Diego Padres
The Padres have been scorching hot for two months, and they went from having a disappointing season to giving the Dodgers a legitimate scare for the NL West crown. Any team that boasts the hot-hitting Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and professional hitter Luiz Arraez is a pretty potent offense to deal with, and the Dylan Cease/Michael King duo at the top of their rotation has been good all year long.
The Phillies went a cool 5-1 against the Padres this year, and they've largely owned them going back to even before the 2022 NLCS. San Diego is likely foaming at the mouth to get a shot at the Phillies, and they would be a formidable test if it comes to that. Don't expect the Phillies to have an easy time if this matchup materializes.
1. Atlanta Braves
The Braves take the top spot and are the club that the Phillies would most like to avoid in the NLDS because, well, they're the Braves. Yes, the Phillies have beaten them two straight years in the playoffs. And yes the Braves are ravaged by injuries. But how confident are you feeling in a hat trick performance this October?
The situation is different of course, and the Phillies would be favored this year. But do you want to grapple with a wounded animal like Atlanta? Wouldn't you prefer to avoid likely Cy Young winner Chris Sale if you could? Haven't we seen enough of these guys, and shouldn't we allow ourselves to just revel in them having a bad year (by their standards) without the need to put the boot to them ourselves in the playoffs? Some Phillies fans are probably hoping for this, but be very careful about what you wish for.
In the end, the Phillies will have to triumph over two of these clubs (or one of them plus the Dodgers, which is a whole separate challenge in and of itself) in order to punch a ticket to the Fall Classic. None of the opponents in play will be a cakewalk, but nothing worthwhile is ever easy.