Predicting where each Phillies free agent will sign in 2024
There's a good chance the Philadelphia Phillies don't bring back a single one of their major free agents in 2024.
The Philadelphia Phillies will attempt to reload in 2024 after a disappointing exit from the 2023 playoffs. Fortunately for the Phillies, most of their roster is under contract through 2024. The starting lineup that we saw in the postseason could very easily be what we see on Opening Day, and with Zack Wheeler under contract through next season Philadelphia could have their Opening Day starter too.
While most of this roster will stay the same, there are still some major free agents that could be out the door in a matter of weeks. Some because of the price tag, others because there are simply better options for the Phillies.
Here's where the four major Phillies free agents will sign this offseason and for how much.
Michael Lorenzen
The big trade the Phillies made at the trade deadline netted them Michael Lorenzen from the Tigers. The 31-year-old was supposed to provide a boost to a rotation that was pretty top-heavy. His first two starts went about as well as Philadelphia could've envisioned with Lorenzen even tossing a no-hitter in his home debut. After that, things went completely downhill.
Lorenzen pitched so poorly over the next month to the point where he was removed from the rotation entirely. He'd pitch out of the bullpen the rest of the way in low-leverage spots when the Phillies didn't want to burn anyone else. He made just two appearances all postseason and was clearly not part of the plan whatsoever.
With Lorenzen's tenure in Philadelphia ending so poorly, chances are he's going to walk this offseason. A match that makes sense is the team that knocked the Phillies out of the postseason, the Arizona Diamondbacks.
As we saw in that series the Diamondbacks were set with their first three starters. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are one of the best starting pitching duos in the league, and Brandon Pfaadt burst onto the scene in October. Their problem was they had no fourth or fifth starter and had to resort to a bullpen game in Game 4 of both the Phillies series and the World Series. Adding Lorenzen gives them that fourth starter for not a ton of money.
Prediction: Diamondbacks - Two years, $25 million with an opt-out after the first year
Craig Kimbrel
The Phillies signed Craig Kimbrel to try and add a trustworthy late-game arm to a bullpen that really needed it. Kimbrel was coming off a decent year with the Dodgers but didn't even crack their postseason roster. That should have been a red flag for Dave Dombrowski, in hindsight.
Kimbrel went on to pitch well for most of this season for Philadelphia, but he played a massive role in the team going home early. Kimbrel blew not one but two games in Arizona that helped the Diamondbacks even the series. Yes, the Phillies should have done more offensively that entire series, but Kimbrel very clearly imploded on the big stage.
Kimbrel's history of postseason failures, highlighted by his 2023 implosion, almost certainly means Philadelphia won't be bringing him back. While the Phillies presumably won't want a reunion, Kimbrel pitched well enough in the regular season to pique the interest of some contenders out there and pitched poorly enough in the postseason to knock his price down.
A team in search of cheap late-game bullpen help is the Baltimore Orioles, who are without Félix Bautista for likely the entire 2024 season after undergoing Tomy John surgery. Baltimore does have Yennier Cano to fill in as the team's closer, but Kimbrel can be a veteran late-game arm for Brandon Hyde to turn to. At least for the regular season.
Prediction: Orioles - One year, $8.5 million
Rhys Hoskins
The Phillies were dealt an early blow with Rhys Hoskins tearing his ACL in Spring Training. This injury caused him to miss the entire 2023 season. There was a chance Hoskins was going to return for the World Series, but as we know, he never even got a chance.
It was unfortunate not only for the Phillies but for Hoskins, who missed his entire contract year. With that in mind, he's going to set out to try and earn as much as he can on a short-term deal so he can rebuild his value and cash in.
With this being such a weak free agency class when it comes to position players, Hoskins should have a fairly robust market. There's an argument that he is the best first baseman available. With many teams in need of adding some right-handed power, I do believe Hoskins has played his last game with the Phillies. Philadelphia is just fine with Bryce Harper manning first base.
A team like the Brewers that watched Rowdy Tellez take a huge step back at first base and finished with the 29th-best wRC+ among DHs could really use a player like Hoskins, who can fill in at both spots. Hoskins can slot into the middle of their order and mash at hitter-friendly American Family Field to try and rebuild his value.
Prediction: Brewers - Two years, $39 million with an opt-out after the first year
Aaron Nola
This is the big one. In an ideal world, the Phillies find a way to bring Aaron Nola back on terms that work for both the player and the team. They need him as their number two-starter behind Zack Wheeler for 2024, but they also need him with Wheeler hitting free agency after the 2024 season.
While Nola returning would be nice, this free agency has several other frontline starters the Phillies can pursue like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, and Jordan Montgomery, to name a few. Bringing Nola back isn't the end-all-be-all, and that's why I believe he's going to walk.
The Phillies and Nola tried to connect on a contract extension but never got close. After departing to an ovation in what could be his last start as a Phillie, it feels like Nola's time here is up.
One team desperate for starting pitching that Nola has been linked with is the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals have said they're ready to spend, and there's a very solid chance they will overpay for Nola. The 30-year-old will get more years and dollars than the Phillies will be comfortable paying. At least they can get a draft pick in exchange.
Prediction: Cardinals - Seven years, $175 million
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