Why you shouldn’t count Phillies out of Juan Soto sweepstakes

In the summer of 2022, it was reported that Juan Soto, then with the Washington Nationals and taking the baseball world by storm at the age of 23, had turned down a contract north of $400 million and would not consider signing any extension prior to hitting free agency in November of 2024. Since then, Soto has been traded twice, the first coming just days after the reported extension, and the second this past winter. 

MLB.com experts recently took a swing at predicting where Soto might land. The panel agreed on the four biggest threats to land him, and Anthony DiComo said he wouldn’t “count the Phillies out on anyone these days,” and likened them to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Another expert, Sarah Langs, chose the Phillies as a dark horse to be reckoned with.

Why you shouldn’t count Phillies out of Juan Soto sweepstakes

The Phillies-Soto connection is real. The team's two best players, Bryce Harper and Trea Turner, are very good friends with Soto, dating back to the 2018 season when Soto was first brought up by the Nationals. 2018 was Harper's final year in the nation's capital before heading north to Philadelphia.

Philadelphia should check every box on Soto's list. Most important, it seems, is the owner is willing to spend money. At this rate, it would be surprising to hear "Soto turned down more money to join..." unless it is a marginal difference.

The Phillies have a great chance to win now and in the future, and adding Soto only makes them better down the road. The team has made deep runs in the previous two postseasons and seems primed for another next month. On top of that, they have young players like Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh, and top prospects Aidan Miller, Andrew Painter, and Justin Crawford who could all realistically see MLB action as soon as 2025.

The owner pays, the team wins, and finally, the fanbase is one of the most important aspects of the franchise. Remember back to 2014-2018. The stadium was empty every single night. There was no atmosphere. Signing Harper marked the beginning of a new era. The fans quite literally "bought" in, and have only intensified the passion for baseball and winning in this city. Soto, already a World Series winner, would take the top off the fanbase.

Juan Soto is due for a big raise this winter

Soto, now 25, is due for a big raise this winter. The New York Yankees have committed a lot of money already to Gerrit Cole, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton (even though they didn’t sign him to that deal). With the price for Soto above the $440 million contract from the Nationals, do they realistically have the ammo to keep their young superstar in the Bronx?

Soto is currently playing on a one-year, $31 million deal that avoided arbitration following last season. With superagent Scott Boras coming off an embarrassing winter by his standards, it’s fair to assume the AAV will be higher than the $31 million he’s playing on now. 

So, let’s break down the givens before we get into suitors, considering the suitors will be the same teams that are always interested in adding superstars. 

1. Nothing under $440 million or $31 million annually will be considered. 
2. Soto will not sign an extension during the final month of the season, meaning he will reach free agency and can talk to any team.
3. Boras will want an option(s) in the deal, no matter how big it inevitably will be. 
4. Boras will not accept a deal until a team gets to his number, meaning he won’t tell teams what the “magic number” is.

Knowing this, over two-thirds of the teams in baseball are already non-contenders for Soto. More teams will drop out after submitting one number to Boras that he will deem “insulting.” Essentially, the big market teams will be the only ones that it comes down to in the Soto bidding because baseball owners will claim that their teams aren’t suited to give out contracts like that. There’s no salary cap in baseball, it comes down to how motivated owners are to pay their players. 

Main players in the Soto bidding will be the Dodgers, Yankees, Giants, Nationals, Phillies, Astros, Mets, and Rangers. There’s a high chance the Yankees will tell Boras to go negotiate with other teams, come down to a final number, and ask for an opportunity to match it. Whether or not Boras grants that wish, the Yankees are very motivated to keep him. 

Every team there should be taken seriously. The Dodgers, if they don’t win the World Series this season, will likely be more motivated than ever to get it done. The Yankees will do everything they can to hold on to him. The Giants are always interested and things got very close with Judge when he was a free agent. He won the 2019 World Series with the Nationals and a reunion makes sense. The Phillies have his close friend Bryce Harper as well as his teammate from that 2019 team, Trea Turner. Those three could potentially form a nucleus in Philadelphia for the next decade.

The Astros made a serious offer to Harper just days into his free agency that Harper seriously considered. The Mets have unlimited money, if that’s all that matters. Finally, the Rangers have proven they will go out and sign big-ticket free agents (Corey Seager, Jacob deGrom) and after they miss the playoffs one year removed from a championship, will still consider their window open. 

Which teams are the favorites to sign Juan Soto?

If bidding started today, the Yankees would have a slight edge over everyone else because Soto has loved his time in the Bronx. If they go on to have a long run in the playoffs, it will only strengthen their chances at bringing back the Cuban-born outfielder. 

The Dodgers and Mets are next most likely, considering they literally cannot be out-bid. The Mets’ recent stretch of play may inspire the front office to consider trying to make a run at re-signing Pete Alonso as well, but an extension there is still not likely. 

Following those two, the Nationals, Astros, and Phillies are all in the third tier. Washington, a rebuilding club with waves of young talent, should be open to a reunion, especially with a player of Soto’s age and stature. Houston is sneaky when it comes to free agency. They could lose Alex Bregman this winter and will need to add a bat to make up for losing their longtime man at the hot corner.

The Giants can’t seem to land any superstar free agent. They came to an agreement with Carlos Correa before the 2023 season, but freaked out after seeing his physical. They’ll be in it, but Soto signing there would be shocking. 

The Phillies, who didn’t do anything last winter (other than bringing in Whit Merrifield who didn’t make it past the All-Star Break, so he doesn’t count), were content with running it back with the same team and Dave Dombrowski’s belief in his club has been rewarded with spending, to this point, the entire year in first place. Knowing the personality of owner John Middleton, who wants reasons to spend money, the Phillies will be firmly in the mix.