What is wrong with José Alvarado?

What's happening with José Alvarado? That's a question many Philadelphia Phillies fans have been asking themselves over the last few months as the hard throwing left-handed reliever has seemingly hit rock bottom over his last 15 appearances. Can the Phillies fix Alvarado before the postseason starts?

How poorly has Alvarado pitched over this 15-game stretch? In 13 1/3 innings, Alvarado is 0-2 with a 6.08 ERA, allowing nine earned runs on 14 hits while issuing 11 walks and striking out 12. Despite those numbers, manager Rob Thomson continues to hand Alvarado the ball in high-leverage situations, and the results have been less than stellar.

That was the case again on Tuesday evening in the series opener against the rival Atlanta Braves. Tasked with coming into the game with the Phillies trailing 2-1 in the eighth, Alvarado was simply dreadful in his 2/3 of an inning, walking four batters and allowing one hit and one run before being pulled with two outs and bases loaded in favor of rookie Max Lazar.

That's not the kind of production you expect out of a pitcher considered by many to be one of the best relief pitchers in MLB over the last couple of seasons.

What is wrong with José Alvarado?

Rob Thomson is a player's manager who likes to let guys figure things out by continuing to play through issues and rebuild confidence in game situations. A good example of how Thomson handles poor performance would be his use of Nick Castellanos, whose slow start to the season had many fans and media types calling for the struggling right fielder to take a seat, yet on Aug. 23, Castellanos is only one of seven MLB players to start every game of the season.

Thomson has extended that same courtesy to Alvarado, but unlike Castellanos who eventually found his groove at the plate and in the field, Alvarado has only regressed further with every opportunity he has been given dating back to well before the All-Star break. With less than a month and a half remaining in the regular season, it's debatable if Thomson should continue to sacrifice winning tight ball games by trying to get Alvarado right on the mound.

Alvarado's sinker is sinking him

The biggest problem Alvarado has faced this season is the poor performance of his sinker. When compared to his numbers last season, Alvarado's primary pitch has been far more hittable in 2024, and opponents have responded by hitting .274 with 31 hits, five home runs and a .451 slugging percentage against the pitch in 113 at-bats. For comparison, opposing hitters only managed a .210 batting average with 17 hits and two home runs in 81 at-bats last season.

To make matters worse, Alvarado's whiff rate on the sinker has regressed at an alarming rate this season, dropping from 24.6 percent last season to a less impressive 14.7 percent in 2024. Factor in a walk rate of 12.9 percent, trending to be his highest since an 18.7 percent showing in 2021, and we arrive at a pitcher who is simply not dominating hitters the same way he did in 2022 and 2023.

Alvarado's success is reliant on his sinker being an elite tool to get opposing hitters chasing in the dirt, and during this recent stretch, it seems like hitters are being very careful to not swing at pitches out of the strike zone and are waiting to challenge Alvarado's fastball in deep counts when he's forced to keep the ball in the strike zone.

Baseball is a game of constant adaption, and it's starting to look like teams have figured out an approach to take advantage of Alvarado's wildness and force him to throw hittable pitches instead of chasing for balls in the dirt.

There's plenty of time for Alvarado to make the right adjustments and get back to his previous levels of dominance, but how far is Thomson willing to go to get Alvarado right while the division lead has been reduced to six games over the Atlanta Braves over the last few weeks?

Alvarado needs to get back on track if the Phillies hope to make a dominant run in the postseason, but should the struggling lefty continue to get the ball in tight situations in winnable ball games? How Thomson manages his bullpen going forward is a key narrative to follow down the stretch. A burning question remains though: can Alvarado salvage his season by making a few adjustments, or are we looking at a lost cause?