Phillies vs. Rays prediction and odds for Tuesday, July 4 (Nola undervalued)

The Philadelphia Phillies are firmly in the NL Wild Card picture, and can make a statement this week with a strong performance against the Tampa Bay Rays.

For the Phillies to make another postseason run, it'll need better starts from Aaron Nola, who has seen his ERA balloon up this season. However, is some good fortune coming his way in the near future, even against the best offense in the big leagues?

Here's how I'm eyeing Phillies vs. Rays on Tuesday:

Phillies vs. Rays odds, run line, total

Phillies vs. Rays prediction and pick

Nola has seen his strikeout numbers dwindle down to eight per nine innings, but he has been fairly unlucky this season. While less strikeouts mean that opponents bats are finding the ball, but Nola has some great underlying metrics like an xERA that is nearly a run lower than his actual ERA (3.63 xERA vs. 4.51) ERA).

Not to mention, the Phillies have outperformed the Rays at the plate over the past month. Philly has hit .266, the fifth best mark in baseball over the last 30 days, while the Rays are hitting .256, ninth in the big leagues.

With Nola's looming regression and the fact that Philadelphia has been out-hitting the Rays over the last month, this is setting up for a strong underdog bet.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.