Phillies vs. Padres prediction and odds for Monday, Sept. 4 (Trust Taijuan Walker)
Taijuan Walker has led the Phillies to 19 wins in 26 appearances this season.
The Philadelphia Phillies are looking to stay in the top wild card spot in the National League when they take on the San Diego Padres on Monday.
San Diego is 5.5 games out of a wild card spot, but there are four teams tied for the final spot in the NL that are all ahead of San Diego. That’s going to make it extremely tough for the team to sneak into the postseason.
Philly has the No. 1 offense in baseball over the last 15 days, and the team could make some noise against Padres veteran lefty Rich Hill on Monday.
He will be opposed by Taijuan Walker, who has won 14 starts this season.
Phillies vs. Padres probable pitchers for Monday, Sept. 4
- Phillies: Taijuan Walker (righty) – 14-5, 4.05 ERA
- Padres: Rich Hill (lefty) – 7-13, 5.26 ERA
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Let’s dive into the odds and my best bet for this game:
Phillies vs. Padres odds, run line and total
Phillies vs. Padres prediction and pick
The Phillies are underdogs in this game, but I think oddsmakers have this wrong considering how great the team has been in Walker’s starts.
While the righty doesn’t have great numbers (4.05 ERA, 4.49 FIP), Philly has gone 19-7 in Walker’s 26 outings in 2023, losing just three of his starts since June 1.
Over that stretch, Walker has allowed more than three earned runs on just three occasions, displaying impressive consistency even though he lacks dominant starts on his 2023 resume.
Meanwhile, Hill has an 8.50 ERA since being traded to San Diego, and now he has to take on the league’s best offense over the past two weeks.
How is he favored?
Sure, the Padres have a good bullpen (3.88 ERA this season), but Philly is better in that category as well – posting a 3.68 bullpen ERA in 2023.
The Padres are on a three-game winning streak, but they’re also just 4-6 in their last 10 games and have underachieved all season.
I’ll gladly take Philly as a dog in this matchup.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.