Phillies vs. Padres prediction and odds for Tuesday, Sept. 5 (Phillies undervalued again)

The Philadelphia Phillies’ offense stayed hot against the San Diego Padres on Monday, scoring nine runs in a 9-7 win. 

The team tagged veteran Rich Hill early in the game, scoring eight runs in the first three innings. Hill lasted just 1.1, which means the Padres bullpen is pretty taxed heading into this matchup. 

San Diego is on the outside looking in of the playoff race in the NL, and it’ll turn to Pedro Avila to get the start in what should be a bullpen game. Avila has made two starts on the season, both coming in late August. 

The Phillies counter with trade deadline acquisition Michael Lorenzen. 

Phillies vs. Padres probable pitchers for Tuesday, Sept. 5

• Phillies: Michael Lorenzen (righty) – 8-8, 3.73 ERA
• Padres: Pedro Avila (righty) – 0-2, 2.67 ERA

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Here’s a look at the odds and my best bet for this matchup:

Phillies vs. Padres odds, run line and total

Phillies vs. Padres prediction and pick

Since throwing a no-hitter back on Aug. 9, Lorenzen has not looked great, posting a 7.80 ERA in three starts. However, I still think he has the edge since the Philly offense is behind him. 

San Diego’s bullpen has a 3.88 ERA this season, but it’s hard to expect the team to pitch several innings again after putting together 7.2 innings on Monday. 

Avila has a solid ERA on the season, but he’s lost both of his starts, allowing 11 runs (six earned) in 7.1 innings of work. 

The Phillies have the best offense in baseball over the last two weeks, so if this game turns into a shootout, I think they have the advantage. 

While Lorenzen hasn’t been great since the no-hitter, he did turn in six innings of three-run ball in a win his last time out. 

With the Phillies set as underdogs, I think they’re worth a bet on Tuesday. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.