The Phillies couldn't get through Kodai Senga and the Mets on Tuesday, losing 2-0 in the series opener.
However, can the Phillies find better success against Carlos Carrasco, who is still working himself back from an extended stint on the injured list? That is the hope as it relies on starter Aaron Nola to keep down the Mets lineup in a game that is lined as essentially a coin flip.
Who will prevail? Let's check out the odds and find out:
Phillies vs. Mets odds, run line and total
Phillies vs. Mets prediction and pick
Carrasco put forth his best start of the season last time out against the Cubs, allowing only one earned run over six-and-two-thirds innings, but that appears to be the exception, not the rule. The Mets righty has battled injuries to his elbow and has an ERA north of 6.00 with diminishing velocity. Carrasco is striking out only five batters per nine innings this season.
I expect the Phillies offense to get on track on Wednesday against Carrasco after dealing with Senga's strikeout prowess. The Phillies strikeout on 24% of at-bats, seventh most in baseball, but also are hitting .315 on balls in play, so when the team makes contact, they are turning those balls into hits. With Carrasco's diminishing strikeout numbers, this is a strong matchup for the Philly offense.
While Nola's numbers are down after contending for a Cy Young last season, he has a 4.59 ERA and his strikeout rate is the lowest its been since his rookie season, the Mets offense checks 17th in the big leagues in batting average at .244.
I believe the edge in this game lies with the Phillies lineup and its ability to tag Carrasco, so I'll back the small road favorites.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.