Phillies vs. Marlins prediction and odds for Thursday, August 3 (Lorenzen's First Start)

Michael Lorenzen will want to make a good impression in this NL Wild Card battle.
Jul 27, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA;  Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen (21) pitches
Jul 27, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen (21) pitches / Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Wednesday the Philadelphia Phillies had a chance to secure a series win and set up an opportunity for a sweep of the Miami Marlins, but they blew ninth, 10th, and 11th inning leads before ultimately getting walked off in the 12th, 9-8. The Phillies still have the upper hand in the standings, 58-50 to Miami’s 58-51 record. 

Today is the finale of this four-game set and despite dropping the first two, Miami’s heroics could mean they head into the weekend with an unlikely split. The Phillies will go for the series win with newly acquired Michael Lorenzen on the mound opposite Johnny Cueto. Lorenzen is 5-7 in 18 starts for the Tigers with a 3.58 ERA, and this is his first start for the Phillies. Cueto is 0-2 in three starts with a 5.06 ERA. 

Let’s get into the odds for the finale of this crucial NL East series. 

Phillies vs. Marlins odds, run line and total

Phillies vs. Marlins prediction and pick

It’s an early start down in Miami today and Philadelphia will be excited to see their newly acquired All-Star starting pitcher, but they might not be too happy with what they find. Lorenzen has been great lately, he made four starts in July and three of those were shutouts. Last time out he allowed three runs over five innings, and that’s more like what they’re going to get out of him. 

Lorenzen has a FIP of 3.88 and prior to this great month it was 4.31 and even after his excellent July his expected ERA is still 4.08. His biggest improvement from last season is his walk rate which is down four percent, but he is still just 27th percentile in strikeout rate with an expected batting average of .249 which is 39th percentile. He’s a good not great starter, who is an upgrade for the Phillies, but not a massive one. 

The Marlins would love to have Lorenzen instead of 37-year-old Johnny Cueto. Cueto has 14 strikeouts to four walks in 16.0 innings this year, but has also allowed four home runs and has a FIP of 5.71. 

Both of these teams were desperate for another starting pitcher and to their credit they both found one, but I’m not sure they’re going to be so happy with the results today. I’ll take the over in Game 4 of this four-game set. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change