Monday, the Philadelphia Phillies bounced back from a series loss over the weekend and took the first game of four against the Miami Marlins. That brings the Phillies to 57-49 and drops the Marlins to 57-50.
The Phillies leapfrogged the Marlins with Taijuan Walker getting his 12th win of the year and now they’ll turn to Ranger Suarez in the second game.
Suarez is 2-5 with a 4.22 ERA in 14 starts this season and will be opposed by Sandy Alcantara. The reigning Cy Young Award winner is 4-9 with a 4.46 ERA, but is coming off a very strong outing.
Let’s get right into the odds for the second of four in this NL East rivalry that has big implications on the Wild Card race.
Phillies vs. Marlins odds, run line and total
Phillies vs. Marlins prediction and pick
Sandy Alcantara hasn’t been the same pitcher for most of this season because his changeup hasn’t been nearly as effective as it was last season.
A year ago it might have been the most dominant pitch in baseball with a run value of 24, but now it has a run value of -8 and his sinker has become his most effective pitch.
This is reflected in his platoon splits. Last year lefties had a .551 OPS against Alcantara and this season that has jumped to .753.
That’s a big issue for Alcantara against Philadelphia because Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Bryson Stott are the hitters carrying the offense while Trea Turner and Nick Castellanos slump badly.
Alcantara was excellent last time out against the Rays and with a FIP of 3.86 I expect some positive regression to come his way, but I worry about his inability to get left-handed hitters out.
On the other side, the Marlins are one of the best teams against left-handed pitchers. Ranger Suarez has traditional platoon splits and a good FIP as well, but simply because of the matchups in this one I don’t like either starting pitcher.
I expect Alcantara and Suarez to be good the rest of the season, but not good enough to keep this game under 7.5 runs. Miami’s .795 OPS against lefties is heavily influenced by Jorge Soler who has 10 home runs against left-handers and is hitting .307.
I’ll take the over, because Suarez will have trouble with Soler and Alcantara doesn’t have a good changeup to get out Harper and Schwarber anymore. We could get a couple of home runs from those three and that’ll get us close enough to our total to clear it once the bullpens take over.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change