Phillies vs. Marlins prediction and odds for Monday, July 31 (Phillies Bounce Back)

It's been a tough July for Miami and the Marlins haven't turned things around just because they beat the Tigers twice this weekend. The Phillies will bounce back from a tough weekend in Pittsburgh.
Philadelphia Phillies infielder Alec Bohm (28)
Philadelphia Phillies infielder Alec Bohm (28) / Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

Things are tightening up in the NL Wild Card race and the NL East standings. The Philadelphia Phillies trail the Miami Marlins by a half game in the standings after both teams had opportunities to make up ground against bottom feeder teams this weekend. The Marlins took a series win over Detroit, but the Phillies dropped two of three in Pittsburgh and are currently on the outside of the Wild Card picture looking in. Philadelphia is 56-49 and Miami is 57-49. 

This four-game series will go a long way to deciding the playoff race as the calendar flips to August and for Game 1 we’ll see Taijuan Walker against Edward Cabrera on the mound. Walker is 11-4 in 21 starts for Philadelphia with a 4.06 ERA and Cabrera is 5-6 in 16 starts for Miami with a 4.74 ERA. 

Let’s get into the odds for the first of four in Miami. 

Phillies vs. Marlins odds, run line and total

Phillies vs. Marlins prediction and pick

Miami was struggling in July but they have seemingly righted the ship a bit and are back in the playoff race. Though I’m not sure how real that is. The team is still 22nd in baseball with a -21 run differential while Philadelphia is 16th at +8.

The Marlins lost eight straight games this month after taking two of three from the Phillies in a series right before the All-Star break. After that losing streak, the Marlins stole one from the Rays who have been bad this month and took two of three from the Detroit Tigers who have been bad all year. 

Miam is a team that was expected to come back down to earth in the second half, its expected win/loss record is 55-55, this team has been flying past expectations all season.

In terms of this matchup today, they’re just slightly worse than the Phillies in about every category. Cabrera has a slightly worse ERA and FIP than Walker, Miami’s bullpen is 17th in ERA and Philadelphia’s is 10th, even in terms of hitting just this month the Marlins are three spots behind the Phillies in team OPS and have scored 18 fewer runs. 

I don’t have a ton of faith in Taijuan Walker and with Nick Castellanos and Trea Turner both slumping badly the lineup doesn’t fit together as nicely. However, Alec Bohm is stepping up and has a 1.078 OPS this past week. Schwarber and Harper are still hitting the ball well, so they’ll have a functional lineup that is good enough to beat Miami in the series opener.

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change