Phillies vs. Giants prediction and odds for Tuesday, May 16 (Lean on Wheeler out West)

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler
Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler / Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

The Philadelphia Phillies fought back to .500, but that didn’t last long as they lost to the San Francisco Giants last night to open a three-game series at Oracle Park to fall to 20-21. Last night, none of the six runs that Bailey Falter allowed were earned, but Falter took another loss and is 0-7.

The Giants are 18-23 and in fourth in the NL West. Philly is third in the East. 

For Game 2 of this three-game series, the Phillies will hand the ball to Zack Wheeler against Alex Cobb. Wheeler is 3-2 in eight starts with a 3.80 ERA. Cobb is also making his ninth start and is 3-1 with a 1.70 ERA. 

The Phillies are favorites on the road even after losing Game 1 and facing San Francisco's ace, so let’s take a look at the odds. 

Phillies vs. Giants odds, spread and total

Phillies vs. Giants prediction and pick

Neither the Phillies or Giants have a strong bullpen, so it will be on these two starting pitchers to exit the game with a lead and to exit late enough that their bullpen can’t blow it. Despite Wheeler having the higher ERA of the two pitchers, I trust him much more to leave his side in a good spot.

Alex Cobb is due for some serious regression. His FIP of 2.97 says that, as does his 37th percentile expected batting average, his 14th percentile hard hit rate, and his lowest strikeout rate since 2020 when he had a 4.30 ERA.

Cobb has allowed 51 hits and only has 41 strikeouts in 47.2 inning pitched this year, but somehow has allowed just nine earned runs. He does a great job scattering hits, but at some point he’s going to be punished for a 20th percentile whiff rate. 

The Phillies have been bad offensively in May, but some team is going to eventually string together a few hits against Cobb and really put a dent into his stellar ERA. I think that could happen tonight and Zack Wheeler will have the better outing of the two starters. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change