After two high scoring affairs to start this series, can we get a pitcher's duel?
The Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks have traded wins through two in Arizona, the D-Backs won the first game 9-8 followed by a blowout Phillies win, 15-3. Philadelphia is set to start Ranger Suarez in the third game of four while Arizona counters with Merrill Kelly.
How should we bet this National League matchup? Can the Phils get the better of the upstart D-Backs?
Here are the odds:
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks odds, run line and total
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks prediction and pick
Suarez started the season on the injured list, and his ERA looks concerning at 4.70, but are we starting to see him round into form? He is off three straight starts in which he pitched at least six innings and allowed a total of four runs and his underlying metrics expect more positive results.
The left hander has a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 3.28, more than one run lower than his ERA, which means he has been plagued by poor variance when the ball is in play.
Suarez has allowed opponents to hit .344 on balls in play, an unsustainable mark that is bound to get lower as the season progresses. While the Diamondbacks are an elit ehitting team, Suarez has shown that he is starting to pitch to his 2022 form.
On the other side, Kelly should be up to his elite form against hte Phillies. He has upped his strikeout marks to a near-career high 10 per nine innings and is inducing more ground ball contact (career high 48%).
Off a 15 run effort from the Phillies lineup, I think this total is a tad too high against a high end rotation player like Kelly, who has an ERA of 2.92 this season while pitching at least six innings in nine of 13 starts.
I'm going to side with the under after a pair of high scoring matchups.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.