The Philadelphia Phillies still hold a firm grasp on the top wild card spot in the National League, but it would do them well to avoid a sweep against the Milwaukee Brewers today after dropping their first two games against them this weekend.
As is tradition, we have little else to do on the Sunday of a holiday weekend, so let's place a few dollars on this matchup. If you're going to join me in doing that, you might as well click the link below and sign up for BetMGM Sportsbook.
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Now, let's dive into the odds and my best bet for today's action.
Phillies vs. Brewers odds, run line, and total
Phillies vs. Brewers prediction and pick
You may look at today's pitching matchup between Ranger Suarez (3.88 ERA) and Wide Miley (3.17 ERA) and assume this is going to be a pitchers duel, but I'm going to zig while everyone else zags and bet on an offensive shootout instead. Give me the OVER.
First of all, today's game is a battle of lefties and both teams have been crushing left-handed pitching lately. Since the All-Star Break, the Phillies rank 5th in OPS (.856) against lefties while the Brewers rank 9th (.812). Gone are the days when we could blindly fade the Brewers when they faced a left-handed starter.
Not only do both teams rake against lefties, but I think Miley's ERA is extremely deceiving. 3.17 is a solid number, but his Field Independent Pitching is all the way up at 4.71. That's an indicator that he's due for some significant regression in the final stretch of the season.
I think the safest bet to make in this game is to bet the OVER. It's already hit twice this series, so why not a third time?
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!