The Phillies split the first two of its weekends series against the Braves, can Zack Wheeler get the team at least a split in Atlanta?
Philadelphia sends out Zack Wheeler on Saturday to try and keep a lid on the Braves explosive offense, but it's the other side that is generating betting value with the Braves leaning on starting pitcher Charlie Morton, who is a prime regression candidate. Can Philadelphia take advantage of Morton's declining form?
Before we get to our betting preivew, here are the odds:
Phillies vs. Braves odds, run line and total
Phillies vs. Braves prediction and pick
Wheeler and Morton are two pitchers trending in the wrong direction and I expect the Phillies to get it done as road underdogs.
Morton is striking out the lowest rate of batters since 2015 and his walk rate is also the highest since 2016. He still has a dangerous curveball, but the Phillies offense is going to be wise to it with the likes of Kyle Schwarber, Alec Bohm and Bryce Harper all historically above league average in terms of hitting curveballs.
Morton has been getting knocked around all year, but avoided trouble with some help in the field, his xERA is more than a run higher at 4.69 vs. his ERA of 3.61. The Phillies are a good team to get to the veteran right hander.
Meanwhile, Wheeler's 4.11 ERA is far above expectations. He has a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 2.90, so his numbers are inflated due to poor variance. With Morton in line for a poor start, I expect Wheeler to respond with a shutdown outing.
I'll back the Phillies at + money.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.