Phillies vs. Astros prediction and odds for Sunday, April 30 (How to bet over/under)

Apr 29, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Kody Clemens (23, right) is
Apr 29, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Kody Clemens (23, right) is / Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

It may not be as important as the 2022 World Series, but the Phillies are getting some revenge on the Astros this weekend, taking two of the first three from the team that won the Fall Classic at Philly's expense last season.

After a slow start to the season, the Phillies are back over .500 and looking to make it a series sweep against the Astros on the road. Philly will send out Bailey Falter to keep down the Astros lineup, who counter with Jose Urquidy.

Here are the odds and our best bet for the series finale on Sunday Night Baseball:

Phillies vs. Astros odds, run line and total

Phillies vs. Astros prediction and pick

Falter has been solid this season, pitching to a 4.50 ERA while posting a career low walk rate. However, he's lacking a punch out pitch with only six strikeouts per nine innings so far this season, a career low in three seasons up in the big leagues.

Against the Astros, who strikeout at a bottom 10 rate and are elite at putting the ball in play, I believe there should be plenty of run scoring chances for them throughout. Houston only has two runs on nine combined hits through two games, but they can break out against Falter, who will leave too many pitches over the plate.

However, the Phillies have the far superior offense so far this season, hitting .276 as a unit and top 10 in wRC+. The team will go up against Jose Urquidy, who has an ERA north of 5.00 on the year and is struggling to find easy outs. He is allowing more than 12 hits per nine innings and his walk rate is above three batters per nine innings, a career high.

While Urquidy can round into form as a back of the rotation arm for the Astros, this is not the game for him. The Phillies can tee off on the soft throwing right hander and I believe the offense stays hot on Sunday night.

With that being said, the Astros ability to get the ball in play against left handed pitching makes me queasy about backing Philadelphia to win a third straight on the road. Instead, I'll opt for the over in what should be an offensive minded matchup.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.