Phillies' updated playoff odds show they're still in driver's seat despite struggles
The Phillies continued their struggles in August. With hopes that they can turn it around in a hurry, the club still controls their playoff destiny.
With every MLB season comes the great unknown at the end of the 162-game marathon. With the Philadelphia Phillies, many strange and wild things have happened during the last couple of months. This included their inability to put the Atlanta Braves away for good.
With another revamped version of Rob Thomson's Phillies, they continue to rehearse the belief that the water will find its level with this group. As uninspiring as it appears at times, this team is unwilling to accept the undesired outcomes and losses they've endured.
After a losing 10-14 record in July, the Phillies have bounced back and are looking to close out August above .500. The Phillies have won back-to-back series against the Royals and Astros and split the first two games of four against the surging Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park.
The Phillies currently sit at 79-56. With another month almost in the books, let's take a look at the most recent changes to the Phillies' playoff odds, according to FanGraphs.
Phillies' updated playoff odds show they're still in driver's seat despite struggles
The Phillies entered the four-game series with the Braves with a 5.0-game lead in the NL East. It's a series that can severely swing the division. On Thursday, the Phillies came back from a four-run deficit and put the game away with a two-run home run by Nick Castellanos to win 5-4.
The Phillies now lead the division by 5.0 games again after Friday's 7-2 loss. They led the NL East by 6.0 games entering August. Here's how the updated playoff odds look after Friday's action.
Team | Make Playoffs | Win World Series |
|---|---|---|
Phillies | 99.5% | 12.0% |
Braves | 88.1% | 6.9% |
Mets | 19.9% | 0.7% |
Nationals | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Marlins | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The Braves' record for the month of August is currently 16-12. The Phillies are right behind at 14-13. The Phillies offense hit the fifth-fewest home runs in MLB in August with only 27, even though their batting average was the fourth-highest at .268. One thing that has also remained consistent has been the starting pitching.
The New York Mets have made some noise but ultimately never made up any ground in the division. They currently sit 3.0 games out of the third and final NL Wild Card spot.
Lets take a look at how the rest of the National League is shaking out.
Team | Make Playoffs | Win World Series |
|---|---|---|
Dodgers | 100.0% | 15.9% |
Brewers | 99.8% | 4.1% |
Phillies | 99.5% | 12.0% |
Padres | 95.7% | 8.0% |
Diamondbacks | 91.2% | 4.6% |
Braves | 88.1% | 6.9% |
The Phillies have lost some ground in the National League seeding. The new No. 1 spot belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers, with NL MVP favorite Shohei Ohtani leading his team to an MLB-best 18-8 record in August.
The Phillies still have a chance to take either the No. 1 or No. 2 seed for home-field advantage through the playoffs and look to hopefully close out a winning series against the Braves this weekend. With the hopes of increasing their division lead, Phillies fans are eager to be crowned the NL East champs for the first time in 13 years.
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