Phillies prospect with biggest fall in MLB Pipeline update isn't who you think

This week, MLB Pipeline released its midseason organizational Top 30 prospect rankings, and there was plenty of movement within the Phillies farm system. While several players climbed up the rankings, there was one former top prospect who took a tumble in the midst of a disappointing campaign.

While Mick Abel has garnered much of the prospect headlines for his well-documented struggles this season, he didn't take the biggest tumble. He's still at No. 6.

Griff McGarry, not Mick Abel, had the biggest fall in latest MLB Pipeline update

Griff McGarry, who started the season ranked as the Phillies No. 11 prospect, fell 11 spots to No. 22. After a promising start to his tenure in which he posted a 3.56 ERA in 111 2/3 innings over the course of two seasons, McGarry had struggled with both command and durability.

After pitching to a reasonable average of .177 in his first full season in 2021, McGarry has seen opponents hit .212 this season against him in 24 innings of work. Additionally, his walk rate has jumped from 5.46 per nine innings in 2022 to 8.39 in 2024, showcasing an inability to keep balls in the strike zone.

The one bright spot in his game has been his strikeout ability, posting 34 strikeouts in 24 innings, improving his strikeout rate from 12.15 per nine innings in 2023 to 12.41 in 2024.

Ahead of the 2024 season, the Phillies moved McGarry to the bullpen in hopes that he could find better efficiency as a full-time reliever. While his ERA has decreased in this role from 6.00 in 2023 to 4.01 this year, his walks and hits are up, which shows that he is still having struggles against Triple-A hitters.

Griff McGarry needs to get back on track for a chance to impact major league roster

McGarry, 25, was once considered an untouchable pitching prospect alongside the likes of Abel and Andrew Painter. There were even thoughts that he could earn a promotion to the big leagues in 2023. This never materialized, and out of the three pitchers, only Painter placed in the Top 100 prospects at No. 34. McGarry and Abel have seen their stock fall significantly (subscription required), while the jury is still out on Painter, who is out for the 2024 season after Tommy John surgery.

As it currently stands, McGarry is ranked as the eighth-best pitcher in the Phillies organization behind Painter, Abel, Jean Cabrera, Seth Johnson, Alex McFarlane, Michael Mercado and Wen-Hui Pan. With the Phillies stacked with pitching depth at the major league level, it will be difficult for McGarry to make the jump unless he turns it around big-time and outperforms the players ahead of him in the pipeline. In order to do that, it is vital for him to improve his command and limit the damage offensively. 

He has shown flashes of potential with a high-velocity fastball and above-average offspeed pitches, but his control and effectiveness have limited his progress and growth. If he can manage to keep the ball in the strike zone and return to his early career form, he has a chance to become the pitcher that the Phillies hoped he would be when they drafted him in the fifth round in 2021.