Phillies' projected 2024 NLDS starting rotation against Mets

The Philadelphia Phillies entered Thursday evening still unclear who they would be facing when the NLDS takes place at Citizens Bank Park this weekend. The New York Mets claimed the opener of a best-of-three Wild Card series when they defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 8-4 on Tuesday evening, and then the Brewers took game two with a 5-3 victory, setting the stage for a win or go home game three showdown last night.

The series came to an exciting conclusion when Mets first baseman Pete Alonso stepped to the plate in the top of the ninth inning and connected for what would become a game-winning three-run homer off Brewers closer Devin Williams. Game over. The Mets and Phillies will now face each other for the first time since the Wild Card was introduced in 1995.

The Phillies haven't remained idle since wrapping up the regular season schedule in Washington on Sunday. Now rested and fully healthy, the team was back on the field by midweek, as regulars and members of the postseason taxi squad participated in an intrasquad game. With preparation and game planning still ongoing, the Phillies now know who their opponent will be, but speculation on who the Phillies might choose for the NLDS roster is still a topic of debate.

Phillies' projected 2024 NLDS starting rotation against Mets

The Phillies, who are the No. 2 seed in the playoffs, carry home-field advantage for the upcoming series, a benefit earned by finishing the regular season with the second-best record in the National League at 95-67.

The starting rotation is trending toward looking a little different based on some key factors likely to influence manager Rob Thomson's plans. With the Phillies' NLDS opponent now identified, let's breakdown how the Phillies rotation could look when the two long-time NL East rivals finally square off in the postseason.

Game 1: Zack Wheeler

It shouldn't come as much of a surprise that Zack Wheeler will toe the rubber for the Phillies in Game 1 versus the Mets. The Cy Young Award candidate was once again the clear ace of the Phillies pitching staff this season and was nothing short of outstanding throughout his 32 starts, earning his second career All-Star selection and notching career win No. 100, in addition to recording personal bests in categories such as wins (16), ERA (2.57). and WHIP (0.955), to name a few.

Wheeler is no stranger to the Mets, having spent six seasons with the organization. Since signing with the Phillies as a free agent before the 2020 season, Wheeler has made 15 starts against his old team and has compiled a record of 5-5 with an ERA of 3.56. He only made one start against the Mets in 2024, recording a loss, despite going seven solid innings and only allowing two runs. Wheeler should be considered a lock to make multiple appearances in this series if necessary.

Game 2: Cristopher Sánchez

Cristopher Sánchez is also coming off a career season. The ground ball-inducing machine took his game to a new level in 2024, prompting the Phillies to swoop in and reward the 27-year-old left-hander by putting pen to paper on a four-year contract extension worth $22.5 million on June 22. Sánchez was selected to his first All-Star team this season, and put together an 11-9 record with a 3.32 ERA, while also making a career-high 31 starts, in addition to two complete games and one shutout.

Thomson hinted at starting Sánchez in Game 2 during a media session this week, per Tim Kelly of On Pattison. Thomson admitted that the lefty's home versus road splits may factor into his final decision. Sánchez was 7-3 with a 2.21 ERA at home this year but was less impressive on the road, going 4-6 with an ERA that spiked to 5.02.

With the Mets coming to town, Thomson is sure to consider those home/road numbers closely before making his final rotation plans. In six career starts versus the Mets (including three appearances out of the bullpen), Sánchez is 2-2 with a 3.62 ERA over 37 2/3 innings.

Game 3: Aaron Nola

Aaron Nola had a chance to leave the Phillies last offseason when the veteran right-handed starter became a free agent for the first time in his career. Despite listening to and receiving offers during his brief stint on the open market, the Phillies and Nola had mutual interest in working out a long-term deal, with Nola signing a seven-year $172 million contract in November to stay in Philadelphia. Nola rewarded that loyalty with a strong season, recording a 14-8 record, to go along with 197 strikeouts and a 3.57 ERA over 33 starts.

With Nola considered the co-ace of the pitching staff and expectations riding high, he'll have his work cut out for him when facing a very dangerous Mets offense. As the longest-tenured Phillies player, Nola and the Mets are quite familiar NL East opponents. In 28 career starts, Nola sits a game above .500 with a record of 10-9 and an ERA of 3.46. In two starts versus the Mets this season, Nola was 1-1 with a 4.05 ERA.

Game 4: Ranger Suárez

It was a tale of two seasons for Ranger Suárez. While 2024 will technically go down as a career year for the 28-year-old late bloomer, the wheels started to fall off for Suárez around midseason, and he enters the postseason with a lot of question marks about his ability to give the Phillies quality innings in meaningful ball games.

The southpaw was dreadful in his four starts in September with a record of 1-2 while surrendering 15 runs (all earned), in addition to 17 strikeouts and 12 walks, resulting in an unsavory 6.04 ERA. Those recent numbers have a lot of Phillies fans on edge right now.

With the Phillies taking on the Mets in a best-of-five series, it's possible Thomson will opt to bring Wheeler back on short rest if the series is in jeopardy. But Suárez's had some success in nine career starts versus the Mets, going 2-0 this season, and 4-3 with a 3.52 ERA overall. It's likely the Phillies will keep someone available to pitch bulk innings in the event that his recent slide continues into the postseason.