No. 2: Aaron Nola
After inking a new contract this past offseason, Aaron Nola was expected to take that second “ace” position and run with it. As Nola has come to be known for, his season has been relatively up and down.
When Nola has his stuff and is dealing, there aren’t many other pitchers you would want on the mound. But on the flip side, he has been prone to have that one or two really bad innings where it all falls apart.
Take the last month, for example. In his two most recent starts, he went seven innings and six innings while allowing just one and two earned runs, respectively. In the two starts before that, he lasted just 4 2/3 and 4 1/3 innings, allowing four and six earned runs, respectively. The two immediately preceding those "off" starts, he went seven and six innings, allowing zero and two earned runs. Back and forth on the pendulum for Nola.
On the season, he has made a league high 32 starts, pitching 194 1/3 innings to a 3.52 ERA. As expected, many of the categories tracked by Baseball Savant fall in the middle range for Nola. He is in the 45th percentile for whiff rate, 54th percentile in hard hit percentile, and 55th percentile in strikeout rate.
But he has historically come through in the season's biggest moments and playoffs. In the 2023 playoffs, he had a 2.35 ERA over 23 innings and four starts. He has also been the starting pitcher to clinch the playoffs in 2022 and 2023 and the pitcher to clinch the NL East this season. To make a deep run, the Phillies and Thompson will have to lean on him throughout the postseason.