Phillies plan to continue to use six-man rotation to keep arms fresh for postseason run
With Michael Lorenzen's addition to the rotation and extra days off, the Philadelphia Phillies can capitalize on getting their starters extra rest.
The Philadelphia Phillies are testing the old adage that there's no such thing as too much pitching.
Heading into Tuesday’s matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays, the Phillies are slotted first in the National League wild-card race, 2.5 games up on the Miami Marlins, who are currently occupying the third and final spot. As they try to create more separation from the San Francisco Giants, Marlins, Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks, their focus is dialed in on making it to the postseason healthy and as rested as possible.
Enter the Phillies' six-man rotation.
Nola, Wheeler and Suárez remain at the top of the rotation
Heading into the year, it seemed clear that the Phillies would have a solid top-four rotation. The fifth spot was more of a question mark.
Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler remain workhorses. Heading into Tuesday’s matchup, Wheeler has tossed 137.0 innings with a 3.74 ERA. Dating back to the start of the 2021 season, Wheeler has logged 503.1 innings, seventh-most in all of MLB. During that stretch, he has led the majors in wins above replacement (WAR) with 15.6, according to FanGraphs.
Oh, and No. 3 on that innings list? Nola with 534.0. And he checks in with a 13.2 WAR during that same stretch.
In 2023, the 30-year-old Nola sits at 148.1 innings with a 4.49 ERA. He has already given up 26 home runs, one away from his career high of 27 in 2019. During his last three starts, the right-hander hasn’t made it more than 5.1 innings, putting up a 6.60 ERA in 15.0 total innings, but he still sits seventh in total innings for the year across the majors.
While the extra rest, in theory, is a good thing, one pitcher who might not be too fond of it is the 33-year-old Wheeler, who spoke with Matt Gelb of The Athletic about the adjustment: "You're just not as synced just because it's more time than what you're used to. You've been doing it for so long that — even if you change it with your mindset — your body is just used to it. So I think you’d rather pitch on four days' rest at 80 percent and have that feel, rather than 90 percent with an extra day or two. That's just me, personally. So, I don't know."
Wheeler might be onto something too, as Gelb relayed Wheeler’s ERA when pitching on four days’ rest (1.60), five days (4.42) and six days (6.48).
Caleb Cotham, the Phillies pitching coach, alluded to this being a temporary solution when talking with Gelb: "Right now. I’ll take the rest a little bit for the guys — with the belief that at some point we're going to hit the gas pedal with our best."
Ranger Suárez got a late start to the season after injuring his elbow before the World Baseball Classic. When he returned, there was an adjustment period in May while he got his feet under himself. Since June 4, though, Suárez has a 3.16 ERA in 79.2 innings, striking out 72 batters while walking 28. He has made it through six innings in four of his past six starts.
Since June 4, the 27-year-old left-hander has thrown the sixth-most innings (79.2) in MLB, according to FanGraphs, and has the eighth-best left on base percentage (82.2 percent) among qualified pitchers.
There have been shaky outings from this crew, but Nola, Wheeler and Suárez are the anchors and likely aren’t going anywhere in the rotation.
Walker’s velocity a factor
Not to be outdone innings-wise, Taijuan Walker has put in 131.2 innings thus far in 2023. Since June 6, he has made it through at least five innings in 12 straight starts. In five starts from June 6 through June 29, he had a .84 ERA across 32.0 innings. In his seven starts since that stretch, he has a 4.25 ERA in 42.1 innings.
There's been one very noticeable hiccup in his pitching lately, though. In multiple starts this year, his velocity has been down.
Phillies lose, 4-2. They were swept in New York, scoring four runs in three games.
— Corey Seidman (@CSeidmanNBCS) June 1, 2023
They're 2-5 on their NL East road trip and their rotation problems might have gotten even worse Thursday if Taijuan Walker (diminished velocity, shaky control, short outing) is hurt.
In his last start, an 8-1 loss to the Minnesota Twins on Saturday, he lost control of his command as well, walking a season-high six batters and hitting another. He also gave up two home runs, marking the first time he gave up multiple homers in a game since a loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 1.
After his start Saturday, Paul Casella of MLB.com relayed what manager Rob Thomson said: "Control is off, command is off, velocity is down. So I think it's time to just give him a little breather."
Walker, for one, appreciates the extra breather, saying, "I know we have a couple off-days coming up, so hopefully I'll get a couple extra days of rest and the velocity picks back up."
According to Casella, his average of 91.2 mph during Saturday’s game was the lowest of his career for the four-seamer.
His fastball velocity is down 1.5 mph (91.3) compared to last year (92.8), according to Baseball Savant, and 2.9 overall compared to 2021 (94.2).
Taijuan Walker has 191 career appearances over 11 MLB seasons -- yet each of his 3 lowest fastball velocity games have come within the past month:
— Paul Casella (@Paul_CasellaMLB) August 13, 2023
Tonight: 91.2 mph
July 15: 91. 4 mph
July 31: 91.5 mph
Walker and the Phillies coaching staff are hoping the extra rest can help correct his velocity issues and set him up for success down the stretch.
Lorenzen and Sánchez are making strong cases to keep the rotation expanded
On Aug. 1, Philadelphia made a trade, bringing Michael Lorenzen from the Detroit Tigers in exchange for minor leaguer Hao-Yu Lee. Since then? Lorenzen has endeared himself to Philly fans, going 2-0 with a 1.06 ERA, .107 batting average against and 10 strikeouts in 17 innings pitched.
Oh, and his second start on August 9? The 31-year-old threw the team’s 14th no-hitter in franchise history, in his first start in front of the home crowd at Citizens Bank Park.
Over his last six starts, Lorenzen has a 1.11 ERA, a .143 batting average against and has only given up one home run in 40.1 innings. The right-hander, who threw a career-high 124 pitches in the no-hitter, will have eight days of rest before he takes the mound again — against the same Washington Nationals he no-hit last time out.
Welcome to Citizens Bank Park, Michael Lorenzen pic.twitter.com/4PpNBAiXky
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) August 10, 2023
After the no-hitter, according to the Associated Press, Lorenzen acknowledged that his arm hurt "10 percent more so" after the increased pitch count. He went on to say: "But the eight days [off] will help a little bit. Trying to ease back in a routine before my next start should help."
The right-hander has worked hard to prove he can be a starter after spending multiple seasons as a reliever out of the bullpen. Already in 2023, Lorenzen has logged 122.2 innings. His previous career high in the majors was 113.1 with the Reds in 2015, his first year in the big leagues. As he continues to stretch out his innings, manager Rob Thomson is focused on keeping him healthy.
After the no-hitter, Thomson told reporters he had Lorenzen on an extended pitch count. According to David Murphy of the Philadelphia Inquirer, the manager said: "You know how important health is for me. He's got a career to think about. And I've got to think about his career."
Meanwhile, Cristopher Sánchez has shown marked improvement since being called up from the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs on June 13. In 10 starts since June 17, the left-hander has a 3.17 ERA with 48 strikeouts and 10 walks in 54.0 innings. In his last two starts, he has slipped a bit, surrendering four walks and four home runs in 11.0 innings for a 6.55 ERA.
However, against the Minnesota Twins in his most recent start, he settled after giving up back-to-back home runs in the second inning, battling back to shut the team down the rest of the way and stretch himself through the sixth inning.
Cristopher Sánchez is the odd man out of the rotation, but that doesn’t diminish the growth he’s displayed this summer. It wasn’t by accident: https://t.co/snwrEPJl5Y
— Matt Gelb (@MattGelb) August 12, 2023
The lefty is already at 58.1 innings on the season, his highest total across his three seasons in the big leagues. In the minors, he topped out at 75.2 innings in 2019.
Thomson has committed to giving Sánchez at least one more start, slated for Saturday against the Washington Nationals. If the 26-year-old throws another gem, it’ll be hard to remove him from the rotation. Though, long term, he might find a role in the bullpen if the Phillies revert back to a traditional rotation.
October will be here before you know it, and the Phillies are playing the long ball. Counting Tuesday’s game, the Phillies have 43 games and six off-days
However, Thomson made it clear, according to the AP, that he isn’t committing to a six-man rotation permanently: "After we get through the off days, we will probably go back to the five-man rotation. We have a lot of off days in there and a lot of guys will get five days' rest circulating through there."
In the meantime, though, the Phillies starters will take advantage of the extra rest as they work through the dog days of summer and set themselves up for a potential postseason run.