Which Phillies are the most pivotal for a World Series return in 2023?
Phillies' expectations are at their highest since the late 2000s.
One year can make a world of difference. Over the past 365 days, the Philadelphia Phillies signed Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos and replaced manager Joe Girardi with Rob Thomson. The club also got younger by giving significant roles to pre-arbitration players Brandon Marsh and Bryson Stott. To much surprise, the Phillies reached the World Series after making the postseason for the first time since 2011 as a Wild Card team.
Dave Dombrowski doubled down — signing superstar shortstop Trea Turner to an 11-year, $300 million contract. The 29-year-old became the club's second active player to earn a $300 million deal, joining Bryce Harper — who signed a 13-year, $330 million deal before the 2019 season.
The Phillies have committed significant money to their core batters and ace Zack Wheeler. They have several players with contracts worth at least $100 million, including Harper, Turner, Wheeler, Castellanos, and catcher J.T. Realmuto — who in 2022 was a Silver Slugger and Gold Glove winner, as well as a member of the All-MLB First Team.
These big-time contracts — and being the defending National League Champions — will only put a brighter spotlight on the Phillies this year. Expectations are as high as they have been since their back-to-back World Series appearances in 2008 and 2009.
We know what to expect from Harper, Turner, and Realmuto. They play at an All-Star level every year. Players who have not had years of continued success will need to play their best for the Phillies to return to the World Series — and be favorites to win. Which players are most pivotal for them to extend their success into 2023?
The Phillies will rely on Kyle Schwarber's power again in 2023.
Throughout the 2022 postseason, we saw what Dombrowski envisioned for this lineup when Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper each smashed six home runs.
The duo's power was pivotal in helping the Phillies go from the NL's final seed to its World Series representative. However, Harper will not likely return to the lineup until around the All-Star break. This means the Phillies will once again turn to Schwarber to hit the long ball.
Schwarber's 46 home runs were not only a career high, but they also led the National League and got him invited to the 2022 Home Run Derby. Despite not winning the contest, Schwarber was the first Phillies player to participate since Rhys Hoskins in 2018. Ironically, Hoskins was eliminated in the 2018 derby's second round by Schwarber.
There is no doubt that Schwarber has had a successful career, but can he play like one of baseball's best power hitters in Harper's absence? Schwarber being in the MLB's top 20 in 2022 in slugging percentage and RBI suggest so. His left-handed batting stance will also go a long way to complement the right-handed stars that will dominate the Phillies lineup — especially with Harper missing time.
Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins, Nick Castellanos, and Alec Bohm are all left-handed bats set to start for the Phillies on Opening Day. If manager Rob Thomson opts to throw Kyle Schwarber in the middle of that group to bat as the third or fourth slot as the cleanup power bat, it could lead to him getting off the a hot start the Phillies will need to be playing well into October.
Brandon Marsh will have a chance to be Phillies' future at center field
There was initial shock when the Phillies traded catcher Logan O'Hoppe — their third-ranked prospect and a member of the MLB's top 100 prospects entering 2022 — for Los Angeles Angeles outfielder Brandon Marsh.
Marsh elevated his game in the short amount of time he spent in Philadelphia, however. Marsh saw his batting average rise from .226 to .288, his on-base percentage rise from .284 to .319, and his slugging percentage rise from .353 to .455 after he was dealt to the Phillies. After only hitting 36 extra-base hits in 583 plate appearances as an Angel, Marsh almost doubled this rate as a Phillie — hitting 14 extra-base hits in just 138 plate appearances.
It appears that Marsh found the perfect fit for himself in center field for the Phillies. It will be exciting to see how the 25-year-old performs with a whole offseason in Philadelphia — a luxury that manager Rob Thomson will also have. With Marsh not being eligible to hit free agency until after the 2027 season, the Phillies will have plenty of time to groom their potential center fielder of the future.
Marsh has eliminated any questions as to whether the Phillies should have dealt their insurance for J.T. Realmuto. Marsh has a chance to transform from a promising young talent to an everyday big-leaguer in 2023. Marsh, as well as the Phillies, have already given themselves the opportunity for success. All that remains is reaching out and grabbing it.
Taijuan Walker could be the final piece for a championship-level Phillies pitching staff.
The Phillies did an incredible job improving their starting rotation and bullpen over the past two seasons. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola will enter 2023 as one of the MLB's best pitching duos, and the club has also highly ranked prospect Andrew Painter. Despite being 19 years old, there is a real chance Painter is the their fifth starter this season.
This leaves Ranger Suárez and newly-signed Taijuan Walker as their third and fourth starting pitchers — and they are both formidable options. We've already discussed how the left-handed Suárez has put himself in a position to expand on his postseason hot streak, and oddly enough, Walker's 2022 numbers resemble a right-handed Suárez.
In 2022, Walker started 29 games for the New York Mets and had a 12-5 record. Overall, the Mets went 16-13 in his starts. Walker faced 649 batters and recorded 132 strikeouts, while only giving out 45 walks. Walker tallied a 3.49 ERA, while allowing 153 hits, 61 earned runs, and 15 home runs. For comparison, Suárez also started 29 games with a 10-7 record — and the Phillies were 17-12 in the games he started. The left-hander faced 662 batters, earned 129 strikeouts, walked 58 batters, and had a 3.65 ERA. Suárez also allowed 149 hits, 63 earned runs, and 15 home runs.
Walker will likely wrestle the spot as the club's third starter away from Suárez as the season draws nearer due to his ability to display command over batters. In 2022, Walker recorded five games with nine or more strikeouts — a feat Suárez failed to do in the regular season.
Walker also has a more refined repertoire than his left-handed counterpart. According to Baseball Savant, Suárez relied on his sinker on 40.2 percent of pitches last year. Walker, on the other hand, displayed a healthier mix — throwing a four-seam fastball on 29.5 percent of pitches and a splitter on 27.6 percent of his pitches.
We are certainly cheering for Suárez to continue showing tremendous growth as a big-league pitcher. However, a season where Walker can step onto the mound and cement himself as the third starter in Philadelphia could go a long way to bringing another deep postseason run to the City of Brotherly Love.