Phillies have the edge in NLDS starting pitching over the Braves
The Phillies match up well against the Braves with their starting pitching depth. Let's take a deep dive into the rotations and see why the Phillies have the edge in the NLDS.
After Gregory Soto grooved a 100 mph fastball past Jazz Chisholm Jr. to put the final touches on a dominant Wild Card Series against the Miami Marlins, all the attention turned to Atlanta, where the Braves await the Phillies in the NLDS. In what many consider the most anticipated Division Series this year, the Phillies vs Braves is riddled with storylines.
It’s a rematch of last year’s NLDS, where the underdog Phillies got the best of the big bad Braves in a series that most thought the Braves would run away with. The Phillies won last year with some timely hitting, timely defense and a lot of stellar pitching.
While this year's version of both teams is centered around vaunted offenses, similar to last year, this series will likely come down to starting pitching. Will the Phillies be able to keep presumptive MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., home run and RBI leader Matt Olson and the many role players like Albies, Riley and Harris II at bay?
Vice versa, can Braves pitching keep Kyle Schwarber from crushing momentum-turning homers, Trea Turner from wreaking havoc on the base paths and Bryce Harper from coming up with clutch, back-breaking hits?
Because the Phillies had to play two more games than the Braves, Wheeler or Nola will not be ready for Game 1 in Atlanta. Although not officially announced yet, Ranger Suárez will likely be on the bump for the Phillies.
The starting pitching led by each team's top-end one and two starters, along with the depth that their third and even fourth pitchers provide, will be the deciding factor in who moves on to the NLCS.
NEXT: How the Braves’ rotation is set up today and the most recent updates on key members of their starting staff.
A look at the state of the Braves' rotation heading into the NLDS
Spencer Strider
Strider has been in the Cy Young conversation all season long. Though he boasts a 3.86 ERA, which doesn't exude elite success, he pitched to a 2.85 FIP, which is second-best in baseball. He led the league with 281 strikeouts and wins with 20. He has been the Braves' most consistent pitcher all year and downright scary to face. Against the Phillies this year, in four games over 26 innings, he has a 2.42 ERA and has won each game. Strider comes into this series well-rested and fully healthy.
Max Fried
Unfortunately, Fried has not been particularly healthy all year. He made just 14 starts this year, and his last start before the NLDS was on Sept. 21. He has recently been bothered by a blister on his finger that could affect his pitching. During his 14 starts in the regular season, he was lights out, pitching to a 2.55 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 3.14 FIP. If he had been able to stay healthy and hold these numbers, we’d be talking about the top two Braves pitchers being the front runners for the Cy Young.
On Wednesday, the Braves held a simulated game where Fried pitched the first inning without a bandage and the next four innings with a band-aid on his blister. It's noteworthy that in a real game setting, he will not be able to use the bandage. Braves Manager Brian Snitker said following the simulated game that Fried "felt good" and should be ready for the NLDS.
Bryce Elder
The 24-year-old, in his first full major league season, did not disappoint. Like many Braves rookies before him, he stepped right into his role and performed above expectations. In 31 starts, Elder had a 3.81 ERA and a WHIP of 1.27. His FIP was on the higher end sitting at 4.42. Like most rookies, he performed better at home, registering a 3.61 ERA, than he did away from Truist Park where he had a 4.05 ERA.
Though it has not been announced officially, the Braves will likely be starting Strider in Game 1, followed by Fried in Game 2 at home and then Elder in Game 3 in Philadelphia. If necessary, they will turn to Strider in Game 4 at Citizens Bank Park, where he was tagged for five runs in just 2 1/3 innings. If Fried responds well with his blister, he'll get the call for Game 5 in Atlanta.
NEXT: Checking in on the Phillies’ starters.
A look at the state of the Phillies' rotation heading into the NLDS
Zach Wheeler
Wheeler has been the ace of this staff and the most consistent starter since he joined the Phillies for the 2020 season. Although he wasn’t mentioned at the top of the list for Cy Young candidacy, he was easily one of the top arms in the league this year. He started Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series and pitched 6 2/3 innings while giving up just one run. He had his best stuff and everything in his arsenal was working. If handed the ball, he would be pitching on normal rest in Game 2.
Aaron Nola
Nola has had an up-and-down year but has turned it around over the last few starts. With a 4.46 ERA in the regular season, teams may overlook him, but he has been on one of his patented heaters. Over his last three starts, including Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series, he’s thrown 19 2/3 innings and has given up just three earned runs. He has come up big in the postseason and clinching games the last two years, and he’s ready to rise to the occasion again.
Ranger Suárez
Suárez is often seen as the Phillies "coolest" pitcher. He never seems like he's thrown off his game and is always calm, cool and collected. He started this season on the IL but returned to pitch 22 games. While this year was a roller coaster for him, he had a couple of months where he was downright lights out. On the season, he pitched to a 4.18 ERA, but in the month of June, he had a 1.08 ERA over five starts and a 2.45 ERA over three starts in August. Last postseason, he was used as a Swiss Army knife, coming in for relief appearances and starting.
NEXT: The verdict. Why the Phillies have the edge in the starting rotation match up in the NLDS.
Do the Phillies have the better starting rotation heading into the NLDS?
This series has a ton of factors that will ultimately sway one team to the winning side, but, like any playoff series, starting pitching will be key. Despite what many are saying or what is shown on paper, the Phillies have the edge in this NLDS against the Braves.
With Suárez, the Phillies third-best starter, on the mound in Atlanta, the pressure shifts all the way onto the Braves. If they throw out Strider and lose at home, the Phillies have the upper hand in the next two matchups, with Wheeler against a hampered Fried in Atlanta and Nola against Elder in Philadelphia.
That brings up the (not so) secret weapon of Citizens Bank Park. Elder will be making his first-ever postseason start in Philadelphia, and it's probably safe to say that the Philly fans will be extra loud for Game 3 of the NLDS. He'll likely be matched up with Nola, who is finding his groove and will be comfortable at home in front of the Philly Phaithful.
Game 4, if necessary, will be the match up everyone has been waiting for. Wheeler vs Strider, and the return of Strider to Citizens Bank Park. These two, hard throwing, righties are pretty evenly matched but the advantage the fans bring in Philadelphia can tilt the scales.
Finally, if they make it to a Game 5, Nola would be pitted against Fried, assuming he responds well to his Game 2 start. Going into the unknown of whether Fried can give his best is a dicey situation for the Braves.
Verdict: The Phillies match up nicely against the Braves because of their depth and two aces at the top of the rotation. As it stands today, the Phillies' starting rotation has the edge over the Braves' rotation in this year's NLDS.