Overall during the 2024 season, starting pitching has been a bright spot for the Philadelphia Phillies. Through 143 games, the team's starters have put up the third-best ERA (3.65) and WAR (15.0) in all of baseball while earning a league-high 60 wins.
Not surprisingly, Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez, Ranger Suárez and Aaron Nola are fully locked into their roles. However, the starting staff hasn't been without its issues, mainly nailing down a reliable fifth starter for the homestretch.
Taijuan Walker, Spencer Turnbull, Tyler Phillips, Kolby Allard, Michael Mercado and Seth Johnson have all seen time in that fifth slot.
Kolby Allard is the Phillies' only realistic option left for the fifth rotation spot this season
Out of all those options, Allard is the best choice to fill the role, partly because others haven't been able to consistently capitalize on their opportunities.
Turnbull, who put up a 1.78 ERA in seven starts earlier this season, is still recovering from a lat injury. If he does return this season, it's expected he'll slot into the bullpen. Walker has continued to struggle on the mound even after his return from the injured list. Through 14 starts, he put up a 6.50 ERA, and since his move to the bullpen, he has a 7.20 ERA in two appearances.
Phillips, who grew up a Phillies fan, entered the scene with a splash earlier this summer, throwing a complete-game shutout in his fourth outing on July 27. At the end of that game, his 1.80 ERA had him looking like he was the solution. After that, however, he put up a 17.74 ERA over his next four starts, and it became evident the 26-year-old isn't yet ready to fill the role.
With time spent in both the rotation and the bullpen, Mercado only managed to put up an 11.08 ERA. And on Sunday, the organization turned to 25-year-old Seth Johnson to make his major league debut. The right-hander was knocked around for nine earned runs in 2 1/3 innings, ending his bid for the role before it even really started.
Allard has been what the Phillies need in a fifth starter
Meanwhile, in limited action this year, Allard has put up a 3.86 ERA in three starts. In his one appearance out of the bullpen — a four-inning stretch in early August — he gave up one earned run. Over his last two starts, he went five innings each time and gave up three earned runs total while striking out eight and not walking any.
In 41 career starts with the Phillies, Atlanta Braves and Texas Rangers, he has a 5.76 ERA, and this year, hitters are making contact off him, putting up a .345 average against him when he starts — and left-handed batters are hitting .308 against him this year. He's made pitches when it counts, though.
According to Baseball Reference, the former first-round pick has held batters to a .133 average in high-leverage situations. And he has limited free passes, putting up a career-best 2.7 percent walk rate so far this year.
The left-hander was optioned to Triple-A in late August to make room for Max Lazar. As Adam Aaronson of the Philly Voice shows, the move has not paid off for the Phillies:
The Phillies have had three starts from the No. 5 spot in their rotation since demoting Kolby Allard:
— Adam Aaronson (@SixersAdam) September 8, 2024
• Taijuan Walker vs. HOU (8/28): 6.0 IP, 13 H, 6 ER, 0 K
• Tyler Phillips @ TOR (9/3): 0.2 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 1 K
• Seth Johnson @ MIA (9/8): 2.1 IP, 8 H, 9 ER, 0 K
The 27-year-old is eligible to be recalled on Tuesday and has the ability to provide some rotation relief. Fans can expect the team to bring Allard back up and slot him into the fifth starter role as the Phillies fight for the No. 1 seed in the National League to finish out the regular season.