Phillies' Game 1 loss makes a NLDS win a statistically challenging feat
The odds are stacked against the Phillies after dropping Game 1 of the NLDS against the Mets.
Red October finally arrived on a perfect Saturday afternoon. The Philadelphia Phillies enjoyed the well-deserved bye and were ready to take care of business at the ballpark that has propelled this team into stardom in October.
Starter Zack Wheeler made a statement early by throwing all 11 pitches to open the game for strikes and recorded the last two outs via strikeout. The Bank was already fired up when, in the bottom of the first inning, Kyle Schwarber stepped into the batter's box and launched a 96 mph fastball from Mets starter Kodai Senga 425 feet to right field. The ballpark immediately exploded into bedlam.
It was every Phillies fan's picture-perfect start to a series-opening playoff game. So what could possibly bring us down from this?
Wheeler continued to dominate, possibly turning in a career-best postseason outing with seven innings pitched, one hit, no runs, nine strikeouts and four walks, per MLB.com's Todd Zolecki. Wheeler left it all out there, leaving the game clinging to a 1-0 lead with only six outs to go.
Those six outs turned out to be the most painful as five runs crossed the plate for the Mets in the eighth inning after an implosion from Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering combined. The terrific Wheeler start was wiped away and left the Phillies with nightmarish shades of last year's NLCS against Arizona, per Corey Seidman of NBC Sports Philadelphia.
Phillies' Game 1 loss makes a NLDS win a statistically challenging feat
The Phillies have put themselves in a predicament with history not being too favorable to losers of Game 1 in a best-of-five series.
According to MLB.com Todd Zolecki, historically, the team that has won Game 1 of a best-of-five series has won the series 72 percent of the time. That's 109 wins in 152 series. The Phillies will try to be one of those 43 teams that have overcome the odds stacked against them.
Mets 6
— Todd Zolecki (@ToddZolecki) October 5, 2024
Phillies 2
Zack Wheeler puts in another fantastic pitching performance, but the Phillies offense was quiet and the bullpen couldn't get anybody out in the eighth.
In all best-of-five postseason series, the team that wins Game 1 has won the series 109 of 152 times (72%).
The Phillies lost decisively and now must battle back to even the series at 1-1 on Sunday in Game 2 before heading to Citi Field for two games. The Phillies do own home-field advantage, so they would have a Game 5 in South Philly if it comes down to it.
The Phillies now have to dig deep and prove to this fanbase that the series isn't over yet and that they can overcome the unfavorable odds. A wasted all-time performance by Wheeler and an anemic offense was not a great way to start, but they can be overcome.
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