What early ZiPS projections think about the Phillies in 2024
As the slow offseason moves along and Spring Training is still at least five weeks away, projections are a fun way to get a baseball fix as we dream about the coming season and all the possibilities for a Philadelphia Phillies team that's supposed to compete for the World Series again.
The early Phillies' ZiPS projections have recently been released on FanGraphs, so let's see what we may be in store for this season.
2024 ZiPS Projections - Philadelphia #Phillies are now live at @FanGraphs.https://t.co/hcPVAB3nWM#ZiPS24 #Phillies
— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) January 4, 2024
A quick note about projections
If you're unfamiliar, projection systems crunch the complex data to predict player results for the coming season. Several systems release projections each offseason, with many found on FanGraphs, including the ever-popular Steamer and sZymborski Projection System (ZiPS). But how do they work?
Per MLB.com's ZiPS glossary entry, "ZiPS uses growth and decline curves based on player type to find trends. It then factors those trends into the past performance of those players to come up with projections."
It's good to remember that projections aren't flawless, so don't follow them blindly — they're more like baseline results if everything goes well during a season. Some players will outperform their projections, some will underperform — woefully — and some will finish close to the computers' predictions.
As ZiPS creator Dan Szymborski explains, "... using both recent playing data with adjustments for zStats, and other factors such as park, league, and quality of competition, ZiPS establishes a baseline estimate for every player being projected."
Let's dig in.
NEXT: The offense and the defense
Phillies' 2024 ZiPS projections: The offense
The good news is that right now, at least, the offense is essentially the same as the group that ended the 2023 season on an absolute tear, until the final two games of the NLCS that is.
It's no secret that the Phillies lineup is loaded with stars ... aging stars. With Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, and even Nick Castellanos over 30 and despite still looking like a potent offense in 2024, there's a risk that things could unravel quickly.
As Szymborski says, "... the team could be susceptible to a lot of bad news hitting at once."
Here are some highlights:
Schwarber projects to lead the team with 38 home runs. He'll also finish with the most strikeouts (188) and walks (97). Johan Rojas will lead the team in stolen bases with 28 — edging out Turner's 27.
One projection that stands out, for all the wrong reasons, is Bryson Stott.
ZiPS sees him regressing in 2024 after a phenomenal 2023 campaign, with a .257/.314/.382 slash line, a 91 OPS+, and only 12 home runs in a full season. Losing points in both average and slugging isn't great. Due to his young age, Stott doesn't have the history to convince ZiPS that he can repeat his sophomore numbers. Here's hoping he can.
Phillies' 2024 ZiPS projections: The defense
We know the outfield picture isn't clear at the moment. In fact, it's downright murky.
ZiPS projects Rojas and Brandon Marsh to split time in center, while Castellanos will be the primary right fielder, making the position the weakest on the team. Of the big league players, his -8 DEF value is the worst, aside from Schwarber's -12. But we know Schwarber will spend most, if not hopefully all, of his time at DH, so that shouldn't be a problem.
But the Phillies, with the outfield as it currently stands, will be giving up something on defense in a trade off for big hits. As Szymborski says, "... you can’t DH both Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos."
Just how uncertain is the left field situation with five weeks until Spring Training? Szymborski had to get creative when trying to predict who would get playing time out there in 2024, creating a "Marchewarbave" moniker — that's a combination of Marsh, Pache, Schwarber, and Cave — to cover the hodge-podge of players who may fill the position.
Everyone on the infield projects for an average or better defensive year, except for Alec Bohm. The fifth-year third baseman projects for a -4 DEF value. That's actually better than his -6.8 score from last season, however, so take that as you will.
NEXT: The starters, the relievers, and the final verdict
Phillies' 2024 ZiPS projections: The starters
Zack Wheeler will be fine in 2024, according to ZiPS. The projection thinks Wheeler will run a 3.61 ERA (identical to 2023) and a 3.42 FIP. Being 34 years old and a pitcher, he could miss a few games and projects to finish with 172 innings over 29 starts.
ZiPS doesn't think Aaron Nola will hit the 200-inning mark either, sliding in at around 180 frames in 2024. The good news is that he'll improve his ERA to 3.84, his FIP to 3.31, and only give up 22 home runs. Phew!
Suárez projects for a 4.02 ERA, Sánchez for a 4.36 ERA, and Walker for a 4.67 ERA. And ZiPS doesn't think any of them will surpass 150 innings.
"Wheeler-Nola is a fine one-two punch, and the emergence of Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez has given the Phillies a lot more runway to survive if calamity strikes," Szymborski writes. "Taijuan Walker’s semi-cromulent performance looks a lot better when he’s only being counted on to be the fifth-best pitcher in the rotation."
ZiPS ranks the Phillies' rotation fourth out of the currently projected teams (20 have been released at the time of writing) behind the Braves, Mariners, and Dodgers. Another top starter from the free agent market to add front-end depth would definitely help.
Phillies' 2024 ZiPS projections: The relievers
The primary bullpen arms will perform like the primary bullpen arms we expect in 2024.
José Alvarado projects for a 3.58 ERA, 3.41 FIP, and a 31.8 percent strikeout rate. What we don't know yet is how many saves ZiPS thinks the big lefty will lock down. And isn't that the biggest question on everyone's mind with the bullpen as currently constructed?
"The computer really likes José Alvarado, Matt Strahm, and Orion Kerkering, and is at least a friendly acquaintance with Jeff Hoffman and Seranthony Domínguez," Szymborski says. "But the relievers it’s not keen on, like Dylan Covey and Andrew Bellatti, it hates with the kind of burning passion that should worry people who fear AI uprisings."
He's not joking about Covey, who projects for a 5.44 ERA and 5.19 FIP with 26 strikeouts in 41 1/3 innings. Or Bellatti and his 5.20 ERA and 4.79 FIP. At least Bellatti is destined to record more strikeouts (55) than innings pitched (45).
The final verdict for the Phillies' 2024 ZiPS projections
So what does Szymborski think of the Phillies after looking at all of the early ZiPS data? It looks like a boom or bust year for Bryce Harper and company, in which things have to fall the right way to compete for the NL East.
"They [the Phillies] still need an awful lot to go right for them and wrong for Atlanta to be serious contenders for the division. But they’re a top-tier Wild Card team and if the rotation stays healthy, they can power themselves pretty far in October once again."
Although he warns that while the Phillies are a good team, "... with just the right mix of plausible, unfortunate outcomes, it could be susceptible to one of those depressing implosions like the Mets or Cardinals last year."
Yikes. Let's hope for everyone's sake, that that doesn't happen.
But that's the thing about projections — they're just projections. The players still have to go out and play ball, and as we saw in 2022, anything can happen once the season starts.
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