Phillies control postseason fates of NL East rivals

The National League playoff field is crystallizing more and more each day. Barring something wildly unexpected, the division races are over, with the Philadelphia Phillies, Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers having things on lockdown and battling for the two first-round byes.

In the Wild Card field, the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres are both looking strong, leaving just one spot remaining. With apologies to the Chicago Cubs, who are lingering five games back of that berth, it realistically comes down to just the New York Mets and the Atlanta Braves.

What a quandary for the Phillies, who will have a large say in who makes the postseason and who doesn't.

Phillies control postseason fates of NL East rival Mets and Braves

As the Phillies prepare for a weekend series against the Mets, they will face them seven times over the remaining 16 games of the MLB regular season. And while the Mets have a crucial three-game showdown in Atlanta during the final week of September, the way they fare against the Phillies will largely dictate whether they take the field in October or not.

For the Phillies, it would be quite satisfying to go something like 6-1 against the Mets down the stretch and stomp out their playoff chances. The downside of that would be opening the door for the Braves to coast in and possibly meet the Phillies in the playoffs for the third straight year.

Atlanta is severely hampered this year thanks to devastating injuries to Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider, just to name a few from a ridiculously long list of banged-up key players. But does anyone really want them sneaking into the postseason, given how they fared against the Phillies this year? They are still dangerous, and any joy that might come from the Phillies breaking the Mets' hearts again would be immediately tempered by the knowledge that they made things easier for a wounded Braves team to live on.

It has shades of 2011, when the juggernaut Phillies swept the Braves in the final series of the season to allow the Cardinals to pass Atlanta and make the playoffs. The Braves were, on paper, a better postseason matchup for the Phillies, but the Phils weren't about to throw one of the final games to let them in (even though many people noted at the time that they would be better off if they lost a game or two in the last series).

As it turned out, the Phillies fell victim to their own success when the ungrateful Cardinals bounced them in the first round en route to a title they had no business winning. I suppose there is a "be careful what you wish for" element that's always in play when it comes to choosing your playoff opponent, but the Phillies played it straight in 2011 and got burned.

There isn't an exact comparison between 2011 and 2024 because, for starters, the Phillies do not play the very end of the season against either the Mets or the Braves. They will have heavy input on what happens before then, but they can't make conscious lineup decisions in the season's final weekend to manipulate results.

And, thanks to the expanded playoff field, the Phillies are in a good position for a first-round bye and will likely not have to face either the Mets or Braves until the NLDS if either club advances. In a best-case scenario, their results against the Mets over the next week and a half will simply determine which team gets to play a couple of road games in the playoffs before hitting the golf course. Either way, the Phillies will focus on their NLDS opponent when the time comes.

I suspect that nobody will be all too thrilled if the Phillies stumble in their two upcoming Mets series and allow New York into the playoff field, even if it is at the Braves' expense. Even if the Phils comfortably hold onto the NL East lead and secure a first-round bye, there will be a feeling of missed opportunity. Actively playing a role in ending a rival's season is a lot of fun when you can do it.

As an aside, let's not even give a thought to the Phillies surrendering an 8.0-game division lead with 16 to play. This is a narrative that some people are talking about, but rest assured that the Mets are only ever on one end of this scenario.

Absent an epic collapse that would result in everyone calling to detonate the roster, the Phillies will be one of the favorites when the field narrows in just a few weeks. It will be intriguing to see how their performance against the Mets impacts the vibes of their club as they enter the postseason, as well as the fortunes of their two division rivals who appear to be in a coin-flip situation for the last spot. It's always nice to have meaningful baseball down the stretch, and it shouldn't ever be taken for granted.