Phillies bullpen power rankings going into the 2024 season

The Philadelphia Phillies have several players competing during spring training for a maximum of three spots in their bullpen. Yunior Marte, Luis Ortiz, and Nick Nelson will be competing for a role in the bullpen once again, as will some new additions.

Kolby Allard, Michael Rucker, Max Castillo, and Michael Mercado are the new additions who will also be seeking a spot with the Phillies over the next month before the start of the regular season at the end of March. Allard and Castillo have some starting experience as well. Marte represents one of the top players from this group of seven who could appear in the bullpen in place of the relievers who are ranked No. 7 to 9 in the power rankings.

Here are the Phillies bullpen power rankings for the 2024 season.

No. 9: Spencer Turnbull

Newcomer Spencer Turnbull has a chance to grab a long relief role in the Phillies bullpen entering 2024. The team signed the right-hander to a one-year, $2 million deal on Feb. 14 and added him to the 40-man-roster, designating McKinley Moore for assignment in the process.

Turnbull, who is now 31, was at one time a highly-touted prospect with the Detroit Tigers (a 2014 draft pick of then Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski). His MLB career has been inconsistent since being ranked as high as No.7 in the Detroit system in 2015 and 2016.

After a couple of rough years to start his big league career, going 3-19 with a 4.76 ERA across 2018 and 2019, Turnbull turned things around in 2020 and 2021 — including a no-hitter — before going down with an elbow injury that led to Tommy John surgery. Over the shortened 2020 season and through his abbreviated 2021, he went 8-6 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 106 2/3 innings.

He struggled again last season, battling injuries throughout. Now Dombrowksi and the Phillies are giving the former second-round pick another kick at the can. He doesn't have any options remaining, and with over five years of MLB service time, will have to agree to be sent to the minor leagues if he's unable to break camp with the team on Opening Day.

No. 8: Dylan Covey

Dylan Covey began last season with the Los Angeles Dodgers organization. The reliever was with their Triple-A team, the Oklahoma City Baseball Club, and made six starts and one appearance out of the bullpen.

Los Angeles promoted him from the minors after due to injuries. He appeared in one game for the franchise last May. He has starting experience previously with the Chicago White Sox (2017 to 2019) but has been used as a reliever with the Boston Red Sox (2020), Dodgers, and Phillies (2023).

After being placed on waivers shortly after his game with the Dodgers, the Phillies claimed Covey. He made 27 relief appearances and one start for Philadelphia last year, finishing with a 3.69 ERA, 28 strikeouts, a 1.51 WHIP, and a 1-3 record.

His appearances were unpredictable, as he had trouble getting batters out without allowing walks or hits. He may have been successful at times, but he didn't make it easy for Phillies fans to watch.

Covey isn't a lock to make the roster out of spring training but he is one of several players with no minor league options remaining. He would need to clear waivers before being assigned to the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs. If he remains with the Phillies at the start of the regular season, he won't be used in high-leverage situations often. Unless relievers are unavailable or injured, his role will be as an option in the sixth or seventh inning out of the bullpen.

No. 7: Connor Brogdon

Connor Brogdon appeared in his fewest amount of games last year (27) with Philadelphia since his first season in 2020. Unless there was an injury to a reliever, such as when José Alvarado went on the IL with elbow inflammation back in May, Brogdon wasn't used frequently by the club like he was in 2022 and 2021.

The right-hander had a 2-1 record, 4.03 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and 26 strikeouts in 29 innings in 2023. Brogdon appeared in 26 contests, two of them starting, with Lehigh Valley. In 28 innings, he had 34 strikeouts, a 5.46 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and a 1-1 record. He did not appear in any games with the Phillies last postseason after appearing in seven during the 2022 playoffs.

He is another player with no remaining minor-league options and will compete with several other right-handed relievers in spring training who do not have a spot secured yet. The 29-year-old may find himself back in Lehigh Valley or with another club if he doesn't clear waivers.

There are too many other available options to guarantee Brogdon a spot on the Opening Day roster, especially with the additions of Turnbull, Rucker, Allard, and Castillo. The other relievers who were with the team last year, such as Covey, Marte, and Ortiz, are also vying for the last open spots.

Factoring in the possibility that Orion Kerkering is another candidate to begin the season with Philadelphia, the amount of open bullpen spots reduces from three to two. Brogdon could make the roster at the start of the regular season, but his past performance, the amount of competition, and the lack of available bullpen spots make him far from a guarantee to start 2024 with the Phillies.

No. 6: Orion Kerkering

He's only 22 and began last year with the Clearwater Threshers in Single-A; however, Orion Kerkering proved he is ready for the majors. He is one of the more exciting players on the roster to watch as he continues to develop in 2024.

He had success in his three appearances with the Phillies at the end of the regular season. Kerkering did fairly well against the Miami Marlins in a Wild Card game and two appearances against the Atlanta Braves in the National League Divisional Series. He struggled in the NLCS versus the Arizona Diamondbacks, allowing two earned runs, five hits, and two walks in 1 1/3 innings over three games during the series.

He relies on two pitches - a sweeper and a sinker. A sweeper is a newer pitch thrown slower than a slider, which gives it more time to "sweep" across the strike zone, according to MLB.com's glossary.

Kerkering has three minor league options remaining, so the Phillies can send him down without having to clear waivers during the year if he struggles. The organization may decide that is what is best for his continued development if he struggles during spring training or at any time during the regular season.

Manager Rob Thomson explained his feelings on the youngster this offseason, per MLB.com's Todd Zolecki.

“He’s way up on my list as far as his talent level and where he stands in that bullpen,” Thomson said.

The team needs to limit the number of times he is called up and sent back down between the majors and minors to avoid affecting his confidence. Kerkering has the potential to be used in the eighth or ninth inning down the line for the Phillies, particularly regularly beginning in 2025 or 2026.

No. 5: Gregory Soto

Gregory Soto appeared to be a candidate to be the Phillies' closer after the club acquired him as part of a trade with the Detroit Tigers in January 2023. He previously succeeded in 48 of his 52 save opportunities with Detroit in 2021 and 2022. However, manager Rob Thomson relied on Craig Kimbrel as the team's primary closer last year.

The Dominican native went 3-4 with a 4.62 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 60 1/3 innings over 69 contests last year. His WHIP was the lowest of his career, and his 65 strikeouts were the second-highest of his five years in the major leagues. He saved three games out of six opportunities.

He was satisfactory in the postseason, taking into account his high ERA. Soto had a mixed performance in Game 2 of the Phillies-Marlins Wild Card contest with two hits, an earned run, and two strikeouts in one inning. Against the Diamondbacks, in Game 4 of the NLCS, he surrendered a hit, an earned run, and one walk in 1/3 of an inning.

According to FanGraphs, the reliever is projected for 70 contests by both ZiPS DC and Steamer. Both systems have Soto finishing with three saves and throwing 70 innings in 2024. Steamer has the left-hander finishing with a lower ERA of 3.62 than ZiPS DC's predicted 4.52.

ZiPS DC projects him to finish with 89 strikeouts to Steamer's 80. Steamer gives him a lower FIP of 3.90 to ZiPS DC's 4.31. Soto's predicted WHIP between the system projections are similar: 1.30 in Steamer and 1.33 in ZiPS DC.

His K/9 is 10.28 with Steamer and 11.39 with ZiPS DC. The lefty has a minimally lower BB/9 with Steamer's 4.15 compared to ZiPS DC's 4.21. Steamer projects Soto's K/BB to be 2.48 compared to a slightly elevated ZiPS DC projection of 2.70.

Soto is talented enough that he will secure one of the Phillies bullpen spots. He, Alvarado, and Strahm are the left-handers in the bullpen from last year's roster. Allard is a new addition who also is a lefty who could be used as a reliever and a potential spot starter for Philly.

No. 3: Matt Strahm

Strahm made 10 spot starts and 46 relief appearances in his first season with Philadelphia last year. He finished with 108 strikeouts, the most of his career since 2019 when he was a member of the San Diego Padres.

The left-hander finished with a 9-5 record — Strahm's nine victories were a new career-high for him. He had a 3.29 ERA in 87 2/3 innings. His 1.02 WHIP was his lowest since the 2020 season when he had a 0.87 WHIP.

One of the top moments, arguably the biggest, was securing the final three outs in Game 4 of the NLDS against the Braves last year. The contest was perhaps the best Phillies game factoring in both the regular season and playoffs.

ZiPS DC and Steamer predict Strahm will participate in 68 contests, 12 more than last season but will pitch in 68 innings, which is 19 2/3 innings less than his total in 2023. His WHIP is projected to be slightly higher than last year, as ZiPS DC has him finishing with a 1.14 WHIP compared to Steamer's 1.11.

Strahm finished with a K/9 of 11.09, a 2.16 BB/9, and a 5.14 K/BB in 2023. ZiPS DC predicts the lefty to finish with a 9.99 K/9, which is lower than Steamer's 10.51. Both projections are lower than his actual total in the category from last year. Both systems predict him finishing with a higher BB/9 in 2024.

The West Fargo, North Dakota, native demonstrated his flexibility in being used as a spot starter, middle reliever, in the setup role, and as a closer for the Phillies in 2023. He may be used in multiple roles in the bullpen for the club once again this season.

No. 2: Jeff Hoffman

Jeff Hoffman appeared in 54 games for the Phillies in 2023, the most during his eight-year career. His 2.41 ERA last year was also the lowest of his time in the majors. He finished with 69 strikeouts and an impressive WHIP of 0.92 last season.

The 31-year-old reliever emerged as a reliable option for the Phillies in the late innings during the playoffs. He had a 1-1 record, 0.86 WHIP, 2.57 ERA, and nine strikeouts over seven innings in eight playoff contests. Hoffman does not have much experience as a closer but proved he is a reliable option for Philadelphia to use in the seventh inning or the eighth in the setup role.

Based on his strong regular season and playoff success last year, Hoffman could enter 2024 in the setup role out of the Phillies bullpen. ZiPS DC and Steamer project him to finish with a higher ERA this year - 4.13 and 3.88, respectively.

The projection systems each have him finishing with a higher WHIP in 2024 than last season. ZiPS DC predicts Hoffman to finish with a 1.23 WHIP compared to 1.27 with the Steamer projection. Both systems have the right-hander finishing with more strikeouts — Steamer has him totaling 85 strikeouts, while ZiPS DC has him finishing with 84.

Hoffman will have a spot secure in the Phillies bullpen when their regular season begins on March 28. While he is one of their better relievers, it is to be determined if he will receive more opportunities to be used in the closer role in 2024.

No. 1: José Alvarado

José Alvarado looks to be the top candidate to open the season as the Phillies closer, as the team hasn't acquired a closer via trade or free agency. The Venezuela native converted 10 of 12 save opportunities successfully in 2023. He has been one of the top options to be used in the setup role for Philadelphia over the last few years.

The left-hander dealt with left elbow inflammation last year, which caused him to have two stints on the IL. In 42 contests, he had a 1.16 WHIP, 64 strikeouts, and a 1.74 ERA, which was the lowest of his career.

During the postseason, he finished with a 1.13 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and six strikeouts in eight innings. Alvarado was arguably the Phillies' most dependable reliever in late innings during the playoffs and should have been used in save opportunities for Philadelphia.

Steamer and ZiPS DC each have him finishing with the most saves of his career (22) during the 2024 season. Unless manager Rob Thomson declares Alvarado the closer during spring training or before the first game of the regular season, it remains a mystery as to what the skipper's approach will be to the situation.

It appears that Thomson may not name one reliever to be the closer and will go with a committee approach, at least to start the season. He may do this to take advantage of matchups or to see which reliever emerges as the best option to close games during the season.

Many of Alvarado's stats have improved year by year during his three seasons with Philadelphia. No matter the manager's approach to the situation, the left-hander has proven he can be relied upon in the setup role. However, he looks like the Phillies' best option to be the primary closer.