NL MVP odds show Bryce Harper has some work to do to catch Shohei Ohtani

New National League Most Valuable Player odds are now out, and Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper is among the names currently in the running after his performance in the first half. He is currently second in the best odds for National League MVP behind Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani, who has put together a stellar first campaign in Los Angeles and ahead of Freddie Freeman, Marcell Ozuna and Ketel Marte, who round out the top five rankings.

NL MVP odds show Bryce Harper has some work to do to catch Shohei Ohtani

Harper currently sits at +380 odds to win his third MVP award, while Ohtani is at -290, according to Draft Kings Sportsbook. This means that if you were to bet $10 on Harper to win the MVP you would take home $38, while in Ohtani’s case it would take $29 to win an additional $10.

Harper finished the first half with a .301 average, with 21 home runs and 61 RBI. Despite having played 45 fewer games, Harper’s home run total thus far matches his numbers from all of 2023. His .982 OPS ranks fourth in MLB, behind Aaron Judge, Ohtani and Juan Soto. Simply put, Harper’s first half was one of the best in all of baseball.

Despite this, it will take a lot for Harper to win his second MVP award in four years as he has some catching up to do. By the numbers, he trails Ohtani in every offensive metric except OBP where has a slight lead to start the second half of the season. (.403 to .400).

The one area where Harper has made up for this is in the field, where he is in the midst of a standout first full campaign at first base. He ranks eighth in all of baseball for fielding percentage at the first base position (.995) after spending the first 11 years of his career in the outfield.

While Harper has an advantage due to his defensive ability at first base, he also missed some time due to a hamstring injury, which has hurt his case so far. Even though Ohtani is unavailable in the field after having Tommy John surgery last offseason, he has made up for it with his offensive output and durability. Ohtani has played in 94 out of 97 possible games for the Dodgers, while Harper has played 81 out of 98 due to his recent stint on the IL and a paternity leave absence in April. 

In order for Bryce Harper to improve his candidacy for the MVP he will need to stay healthy and get back to his pre-injury form.

While he has had his moments since his return, it doesn't compare to his performance in May and June when he was named NL Player of the Month. After a slow April, Harper showed impressive power numbers in May, hitting .313 with seven home runs and 24 RBI. He topped this with a .374 average to go along with 16 RBI and 18 walks in a scorching hot June.

If he can match his first-half production and then some, voters will have a tough decision to make this fall.