Braves may have one hope to catch Phillies in NL East race

The Philadelphia Phillies success was due to a weak schedule. We all know that's not entirely true, but that was a popular position taken by numerous national media members and jealous rival fanbases when each was at a loss for words to describe the Phillies' dominant play for much of April and the entirety of May.

While it certainly didn't hurt that the Phillies faced a number of teams that aren't likely to be playing meaningful baseball when October rolls around, they have proven that they can beat contenders. They find themselves 64-37 and still in first place in the NL East as we approach the last week of July.

Hampered by injuries to J.T. Realmuto, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, the Phillies haven't exactly played their best baseball in recent weeks. Following consecutive series losses to the Oakland Athletics and Pittsburgh Pirates, this is a Phillies team that is finally close to fully healthy. But that doesn't mean it's going to get any easier going forward.

Phillies have the seventh-toughest schedule going forward

When the Phillies took the field against the Minnesota Twins on Monday night, they began a 19-game stretch during which time they'll play six teams with records over .500 who are all currently in the mix for a playoff spot. All of the baseball world's eyes will be on the Phillies as they navigate tough series against the Twins, Cleveland Guardians, New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks.

This stretch of games from July 22 to Aug. 11 is no cakewalk. Taking a look at the Phillies' strength of schedule for the remainder of the season, they currently have the seventh-toughest schedule of any team in MLB, according to Fangraphs. The Phillies have a 100 percent chance of making the playoffs and are currently on pace to win 97 games this season. That being said, all of the Phillies' opponents going forward have a combined winning percentage of .503.

While the Phillies navigate two and a half months of very competitive baseball against some of the teams with the highest winning percentages in MLB, the same can't be said for one notable NL rival.

Braves may have one hope to catch Phillies in NL East race

The Braves have somehow stayed competitive despite season-ending injuries to key players like starter Spencer Strider and 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. Currently 54-45 and 9.0 games back of the Phillies, the Braves got even more bad news this week when second baseman Ozzie Albies (fractured wrist) and starter Max Fried (right forearm) were both placed on the IL this week.

These latest injuries are likely to compel the Braves to seek a substantial trade before the MLB trade deadline on July 30. But even before help arrives in Atlanta, the Braves will benefit from the fourth-weakest schedule in MLB for the rest of the season. Ranked 27th for strength of schedule, the Braves will face opponents with a combined .491 winning percentage over the next two and a half months.

The Braves are projected to win 88 games this season and have an 86 percent chance of making the playoffs. The likelihood of overtaking the Phillies will certainly be a tall order, but they still currently have a seven percent chance of winning the division. With all of the injuries threatening the Braves' postseason hopes, they'll have to take advantage of a weaker schedule and hope the Phillies' fortunes change for the worse if they want to clinch their seventh consecutive NL East division title this season.