5 bold predictions for the Phillies' 2024 season

Orion Kerkering will win the closer job

Here's a fun one.

Orion Kerkering flew through the minors last season and made his debut at the end of September before making the Phillies' postseason roster. He made three appearances out of the bullpen in the regular season and finished with a 3.00 ERA, a 42.9 percent strikeout rate, and a 66.7 percent ground ball rate.

It was an impressive start to the 22-year-old's big league career.

Is there a chance that the Phillies believe Kerkering is the closer of the future? Just putting the pieces together, the Phillies front office refused to go out and get a free agent closer this offseason, and manager Rob Thomson has insisted he's planning a closer-by-committee approach this year. It sounds like they'll use a rotation of established relievers to keep the seat warm until Kerkering proves he's the one for the job.

José Alvarado, Gregory Soto, and company will likely get the lion's share of save opportunities out of the gate, but Kerkering's makeup and stuff scream MLB closer. His wipeout sweeper is already one of the filthiest pitches in the majors, according to MLB.com's David Adler. If he can improve his four-seam fastball and gain the confidence to throw it more often, he'll be closing out games at Citizens Bank Park before long.

“The stuff’s there and the swing-and-miss is there,” Thomson told The Philadelphia Inquirer's Scott Lauber in January. “If he can handle this atmosphere, which I think he’s proven, we got somebody that could be special.”

This prediction became a little more of a longshot this week after the Phillies announced that the youngster might not be ready for Opening Day. He has been sidelined for much of March with the flu bug that went around the spring training clubhouse. However, this shouldn't affect his overall season. Once Kerkering gets built up, you can bet he'll be in the Phillies' bullpen.

It might just take him a little longer to win the closer job.

Johan Rojas will win a Gold Glove Award

This prediction isn't bold because there are questions about Johan Rojas' defensive ability. This is more about taking a gamble that Rojas can improve his bat enough to stick in the major leagues for enough of the season to be eligible for the top defensive award.

Rojas has the defensive prowess to easily pick up the golden hardware. He showed off his glove in his 59-game debut in 2023, making hard plays look routine and difficult plays look, well, easy. In his brief MLB time, the 22-year-old amassed 15 defensive runs saved (DRS) in 392 innings over 57 games in the outfield. How does that measure up to the leaders?

Toronto Blue Jays' Daulton Varsho led MLB outfielders with 29 DRS, but it took him 1,280 innings to compile that. Here's the rest of the top six outfield DRS leaderboard from last season:

How's that for a measuring stick? There's no question, with a full season, Rojas runs away with the title of the best outfielder in the majors.

But as we know, the youngster has struggled immensely at the plate this spring amid concerns coming into camp about his offensive ability. Even if he starts the season with the big club, there's no guarantee he'll stick when they reevaluate after a month or so. And if he starts the year in the minors, he'll eventually be up patrolling center field at Citizens Bank Park.

We're hoping Rojas spends enough time with the Phillies to win his first of what should be many Gold Gloves Awards. Heck, he could even win the Platinum Glove.

Center field is a premiere position, and the Phillies have a premiere defender for years to come — if he can figure things out at the plate.

Kyle Schwarber will hit the most home runs in MLB

If there's one thing Kyle Schwarber does well, it's hit home runs. This year, he'll lead the majors in home runs.

Say what you will about his batting average and strikeouts, the third-year Phillie knows how to park the long ball. Not only does he hit a lot of them, he also hits them a long way. Last season, Schwarber had three of the Phillies' five longest-hit homers, the longest measuring 483 feet.

After hitting 153 home runs in his first seven MLB seasons, the lefty masher has 93 over his two seasons in red pinstripes — he hit 47 last year and 46 in 2022. His 47 in 2023 saw him finish second in the majors behind Matt Olson's 54. His 46 the year before was eclipsed only by Aaron Judge's historic 62-home run campaign.

Preseason projections predict the 31-year-old will hit anywhere from 39 (ZiPS DC) to 42 (Steamer, THE BAT X). In every projection, Aaron Judge is the presumed home run king this season, but he's already dealing with spring training ailments and has a spotty health record.

By all accounts, Schwarber's wonky knee is fully healthy heading into the season — he has even spent time in the outfield this spring. While he has struggled at the plate in Grapefruit League action and hasn't hit a home run yet, getting back to the homer-friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park will be a nice change of scenery (The Bank has a 117 Statcast Park Factor for home runs from the left side of the plate).

Always the bridesmaid and never the bride, as it were. However, this is the year that Schwarber tops the league in round-trippers and helps power the Phillies offense to the postseason.

Bryce Harper will win the NL MVP Award

Bryce Harper hasn't been Bryce Harper for a couple of seasons now.

Since beginning the ordeal with his elbow injury early in 2022, Harper hasn't had enough time on the field to look like the dominant player who won the 2021 NL MVP. He was still a fantastic player in 2022, earning his sixth All-Star nod. But between the elbow ailment and the unfortunate broken thumb, he played just 99 games and finished the year with 18 home runs — far below the 30-something total we're used to seeing in a full season.

It was a similar story last year. When Harper returned from Tommy John surgery, he could hit, but it took him a while to find his power stroke as he recovered to a more recognizable version of the extraordinary player he is. He still finished with 21 homers and a .900 OPS in 126 games. By the end of the season and into the playoffs, he looked more like the Harper who could single-handedly take over a game — see his incredible NLDS Game 3 versus the Braves for proof.

Now, the two-time NL MVP heads into the 2024 season healthy, as long as his stiff back isn't an issue, and ready to regain his place as an elite MLB player. He may be 31 now, but his talent level is otherworldly and should carry him well beyond the typical age-related decline ballplayers experience. The last time Harper was healthy, he hit nine home runs in the first 34 games of his 2022 season. After the elbow injury and around the broken thumb, he hit nine in 65 games.

Even if Harper is fully back, he'll face stiff competition to win the MVP Award. He's up against superstar players like reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., perennial Dodgers candidates Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson of the Braves, and even NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll, as well as a few other notables who could have big years. At least with Shohei Ohtani restricted to only hitting, everyone else in the National League stands a chance.

Bryson Stott will earn his first All-Star nod

Bryson Stott showed immense growth in 2023. The Phillies second baseman put himself on the radar of top upcoming talents in the NL, posting a .280/.329/.419 slash line with 15 home runs and 31 stolen bases. He was a finalist for the Gold Glove Award and could (should) have easily won.

2024 is the year that Stott will make everyone outside of Philadelphia sit up and take notice with his glove and his bat. The third-year Phillie will earn his first All-Star invitation and head to Arlington, Texas, for the 2024 MLB All-Star Game.

Stott was one of the Phillies' best, most consistent players for much of last season. From Opening Day through Aug. 11, he slashed .302/.345/.445 with 11 home runs, 47 RBI and 22 steals. Then things got rocky. In his final 47 games, he hit .222 with a .631 OPS, four home runs, 15 RBI, and nine stolen bases.

Stott believes he has more to give and is aiming for an even bigger year, as reported by MLB.com's Todd Zolecki.

“That’s the gold standard of baseball,” Stott told Zolecki this spring. “Everybody’s goal is to hit .300. I was there. I had a bad month. It goes away fast. ... but I think I was right there last year.”

Owner John Middleton feels the same way. He heaped praise on his young second baseman earlier in training camp.

“Stott, I think, already is a star,” Middleton told Zolecki. “He’s a finalist for the Gold Glove. He should be an All-Star, in my opinion, this year. He could be winning the Gold Glove. That’s what you need.”

Like Harper's MVP chase, Stott will be in tough against some top NL second basemen. Projections see him putting together 2.2 to 2.5 fWAR for the season, which puts him behind Mookie Betts, Ozzie Albies, Ketel Marte, and Nico Hoerner, to name a few. Most models predict him to finish in the back half of the top 10 second basemen.

But we believe in Stott, and look forward to seeing him represent the National League in Texas in July.