Phillies 2023 report cards: Grading the bullpen

What seems always to be a question mark for the Philadelphia Phillies almost every year is the relievers. Over the past few years, Phillies fans have endured some of the worst bullpens ever in baseball (no exaggeration). The past two seasons, however, have played a bit of a different tune.

In 2023, manager Rob Thomson and the coaching staff adopted more of a matchup-based system where he used his best relievers against the heart of the other team's lineup, regardless of the inning. Thomson had who he believed were his high-leverage guys and unleashed them when he thought he could take advantage of a matchup instead of the typical seventh-, eighth-, and ninth-inning guys.

This led to great success throughout the season, switching looks and keeping the opponent and the opposing manager on their toes.

The Phillies ended the regular season with the seventh-best bullpen ERA (3.58) and the third-best WAR (6.8), behind only the Los Angeles Dodgers and Baltimore Orioles, two 100-plus win teams. They stepped it up to another level in the postseason, posting the second-lowest ERA (2.23) and pitching 44 1/3 innings, trailing just the Houston Astros and the two World Series participants.

What guys stepped up? Who outperformed their expectations? And who has earned a spot going forward?

Craig Kimbrel

Let's get this one out of the way early.

Throughout parts of the regular season, Craig Kimbrel was as dominant as his old self. From June 11 to July 18, the future Hall of Famer didn't allow a single earned run over 16 appearances. From the middle of May to the beginning of August, he allowed only six earned runs and dropped his ERA from 8.25 down to 3.06 while also collecting his 400th career save.

The 35-year-old ended the season with a 3.26 ERA and 23 saves for the team while striking out 94 over 69 innings. It was a very solid season for Kimbrel, but there were signs of fatigue.

Towards the latter half of the season and into the postseason, Kimbrel's velocity began dropping, and his infamous knuckle curveball wasn't as sharp. While he may not have always been the most pinpoint-accurate pitcher, he started losing almost all control down the stretch.

This was evident in the NLCS versus the Arizona Diamondbacks, as in his four appearances, he walked four and allowed four earned runs. Kimbrel was the man who gave up the game-winning hit in Game 3, as well as the eventual game-winning run in Game 4, after allowing three in the eighth.

Kimbrel's very solid regular season was tainted by the ending. Although he was lights out at times, he was a major reason the Phillies didn't reach the World Series.

Grade: B-

Jeff Hoffman

A serious surprise out of the bullpen in 2023, Jeff Hoffman showed similar prowess to his old namesake Trevor.

In April of this past year, the man who was once a part of the package that sent Troy Tulowitzki to the Toronto Blue Jays was signed to a minor league free agent deal by the Phillies. He quickly made his way to the majors after some live batting practice versus star hitter Bryce Harper during his rehab stint, which impressed him.

While there were definitely growing pains, the 30-year-old extremely overperformed. His .158 batting average against (BAA) was good enough for third-best in the league last year, only behind two premier relievers in Devin Williams and Josh Hader.

Over the course of 52 innings, Hoffman worked his way from being a mop-up, low-leverage guy to at points, being a set-up man for Thomson with injuries to stars like Seranthony Domínguez and José Alvarado. The power-righty posted a 2.41 ERA while only allowing 29 hits and striking out 69. He ended the season with a 0.917 WHIP.

Again, Hoffman is another guy who stepped up and was a key catalyst in making the Phillies' bullpen one of the best in the league this past season. He'll be in his last year of arbitration in 2024, looking to continue his excellence from this past year.

Grade: A-

Gregory Soto

In 2023, Gregory Soto showed flashes of some nasty stuff, just like he had over his four-year career in Detroit.

The two-time All-Star was traded from Detroit with Kody Clemens in early January, and the buzz around him grew. After two consecutive seasons of low three ERAs, there were obviously high expectations for him in Philly.

While Soto didn't have an All-Star-type season and ultimately finished the year with a 4.62 ERA, there were games where he looked dominant. What ballooned his ERA was coming in during higher leverage situations and giving up big innings. The lefty had a role in the bullpen this year, just not as big as the Phillies had expected.

Soto's fastball looked lively throughout the year, touching 100 mph numerous times. He utilized that pitch more, mostly because of the control issue with his slider and other complementary pitches. Using the fastball, he dropped his walk rate down to 3.3 BB/9 and an overall WHIP of 1.144 — 0.2 lower than both of his All-Star seasons.

The 28-year-old's analytics and eye test show he's an above-average MLB reliever. At the end of the day, however, it doesn't matter what the analytics say if a pitcher gives up runs late in games and in the bigger moments.

Look for Soto to have a bounce-back campaign in 2024 and play a bigger role in this stacked Phillies pen.

Grade: C+

Seranthony Domínguez

The sixth year Phillie had a better season then it may have seemed on surface level.

After allowing six runs in the second game of the year in 2023, Seranthony Domínguez had a tough battle to climb. In his fifth season in the majors, fans, coaches, and front office personnel were definitely hoping to see that jump from great to elite for the 29-year-old.

Domínguez's year came with some ups and downs. He dealt with some injuries along the way, including an oblique issue that affected his performance even after he was reinstated. With all that, the righty posted a 3.78 ERA over 50 innings and tallied 48 strikeouts across his outings.

After coming off his year hiatus due to Tommy John surgery, the sinkerballer looked great in 2022 into the postseason and hoped to carry that momentum into 2023. His early struggles faced him with a harsh reality, but it wasn't as bad as it seemed.

Like Soto, he gave up runs in bunches, two or three here and there. Ballooned innings and high-leverage spots made his ERA and other surface-level statistics look poorer than his performance. He was incredible in the 2023 postseason, tallying over five innings, and, while always giving us some scares, didn't allow one earned run and shut the door in some important games.

Domínguez's energy and calm demeanor do wonders for this Phillies bullpen, and like so many others have stated before, he has the stuff to be a high-leverage guy. He was one of the more trustworthy arms over the course of 162 and will be looking to earn some money as he has an $8 million club option coming up in 2025.

Grade: B

José Alvarado

José, José, José, José, the savior of many games, the escape artist, and the lifeblood of the Phillies bullpen.

He was a big question mark when acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays late in 2020. He was another guy who, if he could control his stuff, would be unhittable. Well, this year, it all came together for him.

The 28-year-old put together the best season of his career, posting a 1.74 ERA over 41 innings. He missed some time with elbow injuries throughout the year, but that didn't affect his command. He walked only 18 hitters, a third of what he allowed in his first year as a Phillie in 2021. His walk rate was down to 3.9 BB/9, and he struck out hitters at a rate of 14 batters per nine innings.

Not only does his on-field performance affect the team greatly, but what he does off the field can't go unseen. Throughout the year, players including Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and Alec Bohm were seen sporting Alvarado's custom-made "friendship necklaces" that he had made for his teammates. The lefty is also constantly seen messing around, joking with teammates, and of course, bringing the energy while on the mound.

Alvarado's improved control issues is one of the biggest takeaways for the Phillies in 2023. Having an elite-level lefty arm who can pump 100-plus mph consistently, while adding in a cutter that moves like a slider is a weapon that any manager would love to have.

If he can stay on the field in 2024, don't be surprised if you see him in Texas for All-Star weekend.

Grade: A

Dylan Covey

Someone who definitely wasn't a fan favorite, Dylan Covey, still found a way to play a very important role in 2023.

The Phillies claimed the 32-year-old off waivers from the Los Angeles Dodgers in May, and his welcome to Philly left a bad taste in everyone's mouth. In his first five games with the squad, Covey allowed 10 runs over the course of about nine innings, leaving his ERA to skyrocket and fans to call for his head.

However, over the course of his next 30 innings, he allowed only six earned runs and finished the season with a 3.69 ERA. Covey even ended the month of September pitching 11 innings and only allowing one run leading into the postseason.

At first, Covey was introduced as a spot starter and long reliever but quickly shifted into a mop-up role after his poor performance to begin his Phillies career. In that low-leverage role, he excelled, eating up plenty of innings and finishing off games for manager Rob Thomson, which allowed him to keep weapons like Kimbrel, Alvarado, and Hoffman rested for more intense scenarios.

Covey has three more years left of team control until he's a free agent. It's tough to say what role the Phillies will have for him in 2024, but with a strong latter half of the year, he has earned himself a spot in the running for one of the last bullpen spots.

Grade: C

Orion Kerkering

The Wonderboy. Orion Kerkering arrived late into the 2023 season but gave everyone a glimpse of the incredible things he is capable of.

While only tallying three regular-season innings, he impressed enough to earn a spot on the postseason roster and was even used in high-leverage situations in the playoffs. While not always performing the best, it was clear the struggles came from being young and inexperienced, not because he's a bad pitcher.

Only pitching three innings didn't qualify him for any stat ranking, but the 2022 fifth-round pick would have ranked above the 90th percentile in every category on Baseball Savant other than walk rate, average exit velocity, and chase rate.

Kerkering's slider ranked as one of the best overall pitches in the sport in 2023. He can throw it in any count, at any time, and for a strike almost whenever he wants which is something that is unheard of in the modern MLB. Oh yeah, he also has a 100-plus mph sinker that runs the complete opposite direction.

The biggest question mark for Kerkering will be if he can learn to utilize his fastball better and locate it to the point that he can throw the slider off of it and disrupt the timing of the hitter. Kerkering will also most likely open up 2024 with another pitch option as Caleb Cotham loves to adjust pitch repetoires.

The 22-year-old will be a staple in red pinstripes for years to come. Look for a jump in development and more innings for him in 2024.

Grade: B+

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