2 Phillies players whose hot starts will continue, 1 who will fade

Which Phillies have a good chance at continuing their hot start to the season, and who will regress?
Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm
Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm / Dylan Buell/GettyImages
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Alec Bohm's hot start will fade

Bohm had a .232/.348/.357 line with a .705 OPS following the Phillies 2-1 win versus the Rockies on April 15. He has since had a minimum of one hit in 11 consecutive games, and his slash line is now .354/.434/.596. He leads Phillies hitters in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS at 1.030.

The 27-year-old leads the Phillies with 26 RBI and 10 doubles. Bohm is second with 14 walks and 35 hits in 28 games. Aside from Turner, Bohm has been Philadelphia's best overall offensive player during the first month of the season.

Can he keep up the pace of being one of the Phillies' top two or three hitters, though? After coming off a career-high batting average of .280 in the 2022 season, Bohm finished with a .274 average the following year. He did increase his OBP from .315 in 2022 to .327 in 2023 and his slugging percentage from .398 to .437. The third baseman's OPS also improved from .713 to .764.

He has been unable to do well for Philadelphia in two consecutive postseasons. In 2022, Bohm finished with a .224/.292/.362 line and a .654 OPS in 17 contests. Last year, he compiled a slash line of .239/.340/.370, along with an OPS of .710 in 13 games.

The native of Omaha, Nebraska, needs to have a better slash line for the Phillies during the 2024 playoffs, assuming the club qualifies as expected. Philly could use Bohm's recent production during the postseason.

Last season, Bohm showed he is capable of making a similar impact as he is currently doing. After having an average May in 2023, during which his slash line was .253/.302/.379, he responded with a better offensive month in June. He totaled a .286/.292/.397 line during the month before excelling in July. The third baseman finished with a slash line of .337/.422/.494 in July before having a less productive August and September.

According to Baseball Savant, Bohm's current chase rate percentage is 22.7 percent, down from 30 percent last year. He has been under the ball on 11.7 percent through the early going of 2024. Maintaining a low percentage here would help him avoid slumps. He finished with a percentage of 24.7 percent last season.

Can Bohm keep up his current production and finish the year with a batting average of .290 or better? Anything is possible. Will he? His previous history suggests he will have his share of struggles with periods of excelling at the plate. He will likely finish with an average between .270 and .280 at the end of the regular season.

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