2 Phillies players whose hot starts will continue, 1 who will fade
Which Phillies have a good chance at continuing their hot start to the season, and who will regress?
The Philadelphia Phillies have done relatively well after starting the first week of the season slowly. They have received contributions from star players such as Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, and Zack Wheeler, as anticipated.
Brandon Marsh and Alec Bohm have also done well over the first month of the season. Even Johan Rojas, who had a slash line of .167/.239/.190 on April 17, has shown improvement recently.
Heading into Saturday's game against the San Diego Padres, Rojas has a .250/.308/.306 line. In his last 15 games, the center fielder is hitting .340 with a .797 OPS and has demonstrated his speed with six stolen bases.
Spencer Turnbull's performance has been another pleasant surprise for the Phillies. He has made five starts in place of injured starter Taijuan Walker. The Demopolis, Alabama native is 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA in 27 innings. He has a 0.85 WHIP with 30 strikeouts, allowing four earned runs and 10 walks.
While getting production from the superstar players will play a huge part in whether the Phillies win the World Series in 2024, getting consistent production from players such as Marsh, Rojas, Bohm, and Whit Merrifield will also make a difference during the club's pursuit of a championship.
Getting Bryson Stott going will be helpful, as there were times in 2023 when he was the Phillies' best overall player, offensively and defensively. He has had a slow start, slashing .221/.287/.299 entering the action on April 27.
The year is long, and every player will have multiple periods of slumps and times when they are doing well. Who can continue their hot streaks beyond the first month of the regular season?
Let's take a look at two Phillies players whose hot starts will continue and one who will fade.
José Alvarado will continue his hot start
José Alvarado got off to a disastrous start on Opening Day versus the Atlanta Braves. The left-hander allowed five earned runs, three hits, and two walks in 2/3 of an inning.
Since then, Alvarado has improved in his last 10 appearances with a 1.00 ERA, a 0.78 WHIP, and nine strikeouts in nine innings. The reliever has now registered four saves as well.
The first of many 🫸🫷 pic.twitter.com/tbPF9oy7Av
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) March 31, 2024
The 28-year-old had an up-and-down first season with Philadelphia in 2021, posting a 4.20 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP in 64 contests. The following year, he lowered his ERA to 3.18 and finished with a 1.22 WHIP. He experienced his share of struggles during the 2022 postseason, with a 5.56 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 12 contests. He allowed seven earned runs and five walks and had 14 strikeouts.
Alvarado was arguably the Phillies' best reliever last season despite having multiple stints on the IL with left elbow inflammation. In 42 games, he had a career-low 1.74 ERA, converted 10 of 12 save opportunities and had a 1.16 WHIP, 64 strikeouts, and 18 walks in 41 1/3 innings.
He continued his solid play into the playoffs and finished with a 1.13 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in eight games. He recorded six strikeouts, three walks and one earned run. Even though manager Rob Thomson did not officially name a closer during the postseason, he should have put the left-hander in the closer role rather than Craig Kimbrel.
Alvarado looks like the Phillies' best option to be their closer this year, as anticipated and is already 4-for-4 in save opportunities. He has the most saves and saves opportunities of all the team's other relievers. Despite his previous lack of save opportunities compared to other closers in the league, he is Philadelphia's best option as its closer.
Ranger Suárez will continue his hot start
Perhaps no other member of the Phillies has made as strong of an impression as Ranger Suárez has in the first month of the season, specifically in his last two starts. After his first outing, in which he allowed three earned runs in five innings against the Braves, the left-hander has been one of the league's best pitchers.
Suárez lowered his ERA from 4.09 to 2.65 in his third start on April 11 versus the Pittsburgh Pirates. He allowed zero earned runs, two hits, and two walks and had eight strikeouts in six innings. Against the Rockies on April 16, the Pie de Cuesta, Venezuela native pitched a complete game shutout. He finished with eight strikeouts and allowed seven hits and one walk, lowering his ERA to 1.73.
COMPLETE GAME SHUTOUT FOR MR. RAGER pic.twitter.com/3UxY41knEZ
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) April 17, 2024
He followed up his complete game shutout with another solid game on April 22 versus the Cincinnati Reds. Suárez threw seven innings, allowed two hits, one walk, zero earned runs and five strikeouts. The 28-year-old lowered his ERA to 1.32 after Saturday's start against the Padres. He's now 5-0 with an incredible 0.63 WHIP and 40 strikeouts in 41 innings.
During his first full season as a starting pitcher in 2022, Suárez went 10-7 with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP with 129 strikeouts. He had a solid postseason with a 2-0 record and a 1.23 ERA in five appearances, three of them starts. In 14 2/3 innings, he had a 1.02 WHIP, 13 strikeouts, and allowed six walks and two earned runs.
Last year, Suárez missed the first month of the season with a left elbow strain. He made 22 starts and finished with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. In 125 innings, he totaled 119 strikeouts and allowed 48 walks and 58 earned runs. He did well in four starts during the postseason last year, with a 1.93 ERA, a 0.80 WHIP, and a 1-1 record in 18 2/3 innings. He finished with four earned runs and two walks allowed and 19 strikeouts.
Suárez features several pitch types in his arsenal. The most common pitches he throws are a sinker (34.6 percent), a curveball (19.7 percent), and a changeup (17.5 percent). He also features a four-seamer (16.9 percent), a cutter (11 percent), and a slider (0.2 percent).
While it's unlikely that he'll continue his current dominance, as he is performing like a No. 1 ace starter, he could easily be good enough to be a No. 2 starter. If that's the case, the Phillies will have a formidable top three in their rotation with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola.
Alec Bohm's hot start will fade
Bohm had a .232/.348/.357 line with a .705 OPS following the Phillies 2-1 win versus the Rockies on April 15. He has since had a minimum of one hit in 11 consecutive games, and his slash line is now .354/.434/.596. He leads Phillies hitters in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS at 1.030.
Bohmer gets things going! pic.twitter.com/oCLH2r6lVc
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) April 23, 2024
The 27-year-old leads the Phillies with 26 RBI and 10 doubles. Bohm is second with 14 walks and 35 hits in 28 games. Aside from Turner, Bohm has been Philadelphia's best overall offensive player during the first month of the season.
Can he keep up the pace of being one of the Phillies' top two or three hitters, though? After coming off a career-high batting average of .280 in the 2022 season, Bohm finished with a .274 average the following year. He did increase his OBP from .315 in 2022 to .327 in 2023 and his slugging percentage from .398 to .437. The third baseman's OPS also improved from .713 to .764.
He has been unable to do well for Philadelphia in two consecutive postseasons. In 2022, Bohm finished with a .224/.292/.362 line and a .654 OPS in 17 contests. Last year, he compiled a slash line of .239/.340/.370, along with an OPS of .710 in 13 games.
The native of Omaha, Nebraska, needs to have a better slash line for the Phillies during the 2024 playoffs, assuming the club qualifies as expected. Philly could use Bohm's recent production during the postseason.
Last season, Bohm showed he is capable of making a similar impact as he is currently doing. After having an average May in 2023, during which his slash line was .253/.302/.379, he responded with a better offensive month in June. He totaled a .286/.292/.397 line during the month before excelling in July. The third baseman finished with a slash line of .337/.422/.494 in July before having a less productive August and September.
According to Baseball Savant, Bohm's current chase rate percentage is 22.7 percent, down from 30 percent last year. He has been under the ball on 11.7 percent through the early going of 2024. Maintaining a low percentage here would help him avoid slumps. He finished with a percentage of 24.7 percent last season.
Can Bohm keep up his current production and finish the year with a batting average of .290 or better? Anything is possible. Will he? His previous history suggests he will have his share of struggles with periods of excelling at the plate. He will likely finish with an average between .270 and .280 at the end of the regular season.
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