Nationals vs. Phillies prediction and odds for Friday, June 30 (Target total)

Our expert breakdown for Nationals vs. Phillies with an eye on the over/under.
Jun 29, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA;  Philadelphia Phillies left fielder Kyle Schwarber (12) rhigh
Jun 29, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Philadelphia Phillies left fielder Kyle Schwarber (12) rhigh / Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports
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The Philadelphia Phillies head back home after a three game sweep of the Chicago Cubs, making it four straight wins for the Wild Card contending club.

The team will look to build it's standing in the postseason race against the rebuilding Washington Nationals, but Washington has hit well at the plate all season, especially against left handed pitching like the Phillies are starting on Friday night.

Can Philly's surging offense keep it rolling against Josiah Gray?

Here are the odds for Friday's matchup:

Nationals vs. Phillies odds, run line and total

Nationals vs. Phillies prediction and pick

There should be plenty of fireworks in this game as the Phillies enter with a top 10 OPS in June against Josiah Gray, but the Nationals hit north of .280 against southpaws, which the Phillies are starting on Friday with Cristopher Sanchez.

Let's start with Gray, who has an ERA of 3.43, but an xERA of 4.33 that is mainly due to his unsustainable 83% stranded rate. Gray strikes out less than eight batters per nine innings, down from his first two seasons in the big leagues where he punched out over nine. He also is still walking more than four batters per nine innings, putting him in tricky situations on the base paths often.

Against a Phillies lineup that is thriving coming this month, tied for eighth in runs scored while hitting north of .260, I believe Gray takes a step back on Friday night.

However, I can't trust Sanchez against a potent Nationals lineup. Washington is one of the most efficient teams in baseball against lefties, and Sanchez has limited experience with only three starts and 13.1 innings pitched this season.

I think we are trending towards fireworks on July 4th weekend.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.