Nationals vs. Phillies Game 1 prediction and odds for Tuesday, Aug. 8 (How to bet total)
The Nationals have been winning lately with good pitching, but that won't last long with their lackluster pitching staff.
By Josh Yourish
Monday, the first game of this four-game series was rained out in Philadelphia so the Phillies and Washington Nationals will play a double-header at Citizens Bank Park today.
The season series is tied 3-3, but the Phillies are 12 games better than the 49-63 last place Nationals at 61-51. Philadelphia is second in the NL East.
A day later, Trevor Williams will take the mound against Zack Wheeler who were both scheduled to go yesterday. Williams is 5-6 in 22 starts with a 4.72 ERA and Wheeler is 8-5 with a 3.71 ERA.
The Nationals have won four straight games and five of their last six, but they’re big underdogs in Game 1 in Philly. Let’s get into the odds for Game 1 of the doubleheader.
Nationals vs. Phillies odds, run line and total
Nationals vs. Phillies prediction and pick
Zack Wheeler’s ERA might not completely reflect it, but he’s been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball this year.
He has an elite fastball with a run value of 10 and a 2.94 FIP courtesy of his 94th percentile walk rate and top quartile strikeout rate.
His expected ERA is 3.27, but last time out he allowed two home runs to the Miami Marlins. His hard hit rate is 67th percentile -- so good, not great. Luckily both home runs were solo shots and only his 11th and 12th given up this year, so not a big concern at all.
I expect Wheeler to be great today, but he likely won’t go the distance. That’ll be up to the bullpen.
The Philly bullpen has a 3.72 ERA and a 3.91 FIP with a 4.06 xFIP, so that unit could regress down the stretch of the season, but are still better than Washington’s bullpen which is dead last with a 5.02 FIP. Over the past 30 days Washington has a team ERA of 5.12 which is 28th in baseball.
Over that same stretch of 30 days the Nats are ninth with 121 runs scored, so they’ve played in a decent amount of high scoring games, so I’ll take the over. Wheeler will be great, but I’m not so sure about any of the other pitchers that will take the mound in this one.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change