MLB playoff format doesn't need to be changed, top seeds just need to play better
Complaints about the new MLB playoff format have been common dating back to the 2022 postseason. The format is not to blame, the underperforming teams are.
Since Major League Baseball introduced a new playoff format — adding a third Wild Card team in each league and not reseeding after each round — following the most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement, fans and some media members have complained that the new setup places higher seeded teams at a disadvantage.
Let's examine some of those arguments and interpret their validity.
Argument 1: Not reseeding after the Wild Card Round
One major argument is that the top-seeded teams should play the lowest remaining seeds — as in the other major American sports leagues.
But consider that after the 2022 Wild Card Series, the top American League teams, the New York Yankees and the Houston Astros, both beat the teams that advanced past the Wild Card round and ended up playing each other in the ALCS, with the Astros going on to win the World Series.
In the National League, the lowest-seeded team — the Philadelphia Phillies — beat the third-seeded team, the second-seeded team and the fifth-seeded team to advance to the World Series. If the new format did reseed following the Wild Card Series, the Phillies would have played the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the San Diego Padres would have played the Atlanta Braves.
Both the Phillies and Padres won in the NLDS, beating the higher-seeded teams anyway. There is no telling what would have happened if there was a reseed, but neither team would have been an easy foe.
In playoff baseball, anything can happen. The postseason would be boring if the higher seed automatically advanced every year.
Another major aspect of postseason baseball is that the hot teams usually prevail. For example, the 2007 Colorado Rockies were likely not the best NL team, but they got hot at the right time and advanced to the World Series. While higher seeds should receive advantages, no advantage will lead to success 100 percent of the time.
NEXT: Is a long layoff an advantage or disadvantage?
Argument 2: The layoff for the top seeds is too long
This argument may hold some validity, however, having extra days is a huge advantage in most cases.
A long layoff could cause some rust for teams that have not played in five or six days. Looking at the 2023 Division Series in each league, in three out of the four series, the higher seed started their series with a loss.
But can the layoff be to blame? Likely not.
Even before the new playoff format, teams have succeeded and won the World Series with extended days off between the regular season and the postseason.
You get home field advantage
— jack (@Jolly_Olive) October 9, 2023
You get to reset your rotation
You get to heal day-to-day players
You get one more day of rest than you used to
Stop blaming the format ffs
The higher seeds have home-field advantage, which in most cases should be significant given that they have time to prepare without travel days. Regardless of the venue or city, playing on the road is more difficult. Just six teams in the AL and six teams in the NL had a winning record on the road during the regular season.
Players get tired from travel, opposing stadiums may be tougher to play in and players are away from their families and normal routines. In eight Division Series games played so far this season, the home team has only won twice — the Astros beat the Twins in the ALDS Game 1 and the Braves came back to win Game 2 of their NLDS.
The top seeds need to take advantage of playing at home. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic points out that the lower seed, playing each game on the road, has won five of the eight Wild Card Series over the last two seasons.
Another advantage the top two seeds in each league have is that they can set their starting rotation as they please.
For example, the Braves could pitch Spencer Strider, while the Phillies had to go to their number three starter in Ranger Suárez because Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola had to throw in the Wild Card Series. If not for the off days, the Braves would have had to start Bryce Elder, or someone else, in Game 1. Max Fried may still have been out with a blister; the extra days allowed them to put their best pitchers in place to win games at home.
While it's not a guarantee that a team's ace will always pitch well (see Clayton Kershaw), it is undoubtedly an advantage to the teams with a first-round bye.
NEXT: Does the MLB playoff format actually need to be "fixed?"
Does being the higher seed automatically mean a team is better?
The Braves finished the regular season with 104 wins — the highest total in baseball. The Dodgers finished with 100 wins — the third most in baseball. Both teams had very successful regular seasons.
The regular season, however, is a long and arduous journey, with injuries and fatigue accruing over time. The teams with the best records at various points of the regular season are not always the same teams when October rolls around. Once the postseason starts, teams are as good as the current rosters allow.
With Charlie Morton and Kyle Wright being injured to start the postseason, the Braves' rotation took a major hit. It's difficult for any team to win a postseason series with just two proven, successful starters.
The Dodgers are in a similar position as they have lost several starting pitchers due to injury, plus one to MLB investigative circumstances.
The Baltimore Orioles are coming off of a rebuild that has peaked earlier than many expected. They are a talented team, however, they are young and inexperienced. Postseason experience can be vitally important in tough series.
Can the MLB playoff formatting be fixed?
Does it need to be fixed?
There have been suggestions that MLB should go back to a single play-in game for the Wild Card teams. This would shorten the number of days off for the higher seeds.
This was also a flawed system for a number of reasons. Teams that clinched postseason berths at the very end of the regular season had less rest and a harder time setting up their pitching rotations.
In Korea, the higher seed begins the series with a 1-0 lead. That takes away from all dramatics and immediately puts the lower seed at a significant competitive disadvantage.
While the current format may not be perfect, it's unlikely that anything changes or gets "fixed." The new format is entertaining, and there are no rules in any sport that disallow for upsets.
Rosenthal makes a valid point in saying:
No matter how baseball slices it, the postseason always will be a crapshoot. No format following a six-month regular season ever will be truly fair.
Each team in a postseason field has its strengths and weaknesses. It's up to that team to play to its strengths and for the opponent to expose its weaknesses. Perhaps the best fix is simply for the "best" teams to play better.