Mets vs. Phillies prediction and odds for Sunday, June 25

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler (45)
Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler (45) / Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Yesterday, the New York Mets needed a vintage performance from Max Scherzer and got it in their 4-2 win over the Philadelphia Phillies to bring this weekend series to even at a game apiece. Today in the rubber match in Philadelphia, the 35-41 Mets will hope for a similar outing from Carlos Carassco who will take the mound opposite Zack Wheeler. The Phillies are 39-37.

Carrasco has made nine starts for New York and is 2-3 with a 6.34 ERA. Wheeler and the Phillies are favorites in this one in large part because of his 6-4 record and 3.48 ERA in 15 starts. Let’s take a look at the odds for the series finale in this NL East rivalry. 

Mets vs. Phillies odds, run line and total

Mets vs. Phillies prediction and pick

One of the many reasons that the Mets are still under .500 this year is because Carlos Carrasco, not only missed some time, but also has an ERA over six after posting a 3.97 last year. So far his strikeout rate is 14.1% compared to a 23.6% mark from last season. His walk rate is also up four percent while his expected slugging is in the bottom 10 percent of the league. His expected ERA is 6.31. 

Somehow despite his struggles, the Mets are actually 4-5 in his outings and their last two losses have only been by one run, so the run line seems like a potentially less valuable proposition for this one. Carlos Carrasco, while he is struggling, has reverse splits and handles lefties better than right-handed hitters this year, which could neutralize Kyle Schwarber who has seven home runs this month.

Zack Wheeler will almost certainly neutralize the entire Mets lineup because nobody has been able to touch him lately. In his last three starts he’s allowed a total of one run on 11 hits with 19 strikeouts to four walks in 19.1 innings. The fact that the Mets have hung around in Carrasco’s starts has me a bit spooked, so instead of just taking the Phillies on the run line I’ll take the under because of Wheeler’s dominance. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change