The Phillies are off to a slow start in 2023, just 3-6 on the year, but the team did show some signs of life with a series win against the Reds over the weekend.
Philadelphia stays at home as they start a three game series against the 4-6 Marlins. The Fish will send out the defending Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara to face the Phillies lineup that is still searching for consistency.
However, the Phillies are underdogs at home against a porous offense in Miami. Is Alcantara's strong pitching overrated in this matchup?
Here are the odds:
Marlins vs. Phillies odds, run line and total
Marlins vs. Phillies prediction and pick
The Phillies slow start is definitely a concern long term, but I do see them as a valuable underdog bet against a Marlins team that can't justify this price on the road even with one of the best pitchers in the game on the mound.
Alcantara reminded everyone what he is capable of last week when he pitched a complete game shutout against the Twins that resulted in a 1-0 Marlins win. However, Miami's offense is consistently the issue for the team, bottom five in key offensive metrics like wRC+ and on-base percentage.
Further, the team struggles against lefties, which the Phillies will send out in Matt Strahm on Monday night. Strahm is a swing man for the Phillies rotation, starting one game and coming out of the bullpen for another this season, but this should be a strong matchup for him to go through the order at least once. Last season, the Marlins were last in batting average against left handed pitching.
While fading Alcantara isn't pleasant, the Marlins offense will keep this game close for the Phillies to pull away late and win as home underdogs.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.