Mariners vs. Phillies prediction and odds for Tuesday, April 25 (Why UNDER is best bet)

Apr 18, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Bailey Falter (70)
Apr 18, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Bailey Falter (70) / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

The Philadelphia Phillies and Seattle Mariners start a weekday series against one another as both teams that made the postseason last year attempt to climb towards .500.

The Phillies will start left hander Bailey Falter in this interleague matchup while the Mariners counter with righty Logan Gilbert. The Mariners offense has been a point of concern despite having budding star Julio Rodriguez in it, and it may not get easier on Tuesday against Falter.

Let me explain, but first check out the odds:

Mariners vs. Phillies odds, run line and total

Mariners vs. Phillies prediction and pick

One team has been worse against lefty pitching than the Mariners this season, the Dodgers, as Seattle is hitting just .198 against southpaws in 2023. The team will face a southpaw in Falter, who has been steady this season, allowing three or less earned runs in three of four starts.

I expect the Mariners hitting woes against lefties will continue against Falter on Tuesday.

However, the Phillies offense has a tough test against Gilbert, one of the emerging stars for the Mariners vaunted rotation.

After posting a 3.26 ERA last season, the right hander has a 3.57 ERA through four starts. He has upped his strikeout rate to more than 11 per nine innings and is limiting his walks to less than two per nine.

That's impactful against a Phillies lineup that is top 10 in batting average, but also strikes out at an above average rate and walks at the sixth lowest rate. I give the edge to Gilbert in addition to Falter, making me like the under in this matchup.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.