Here’s how Monday’s Braves-Mets doubleheader affects Phillies playoff situation

It's been five days since the Philadelphia Phillies clinched the top spot in the National League East and a first-round bye in the 2024 MLB Playoffs, but we still don't know which teams will be competing for the opportunity to play them in the National League Division Series.

Sunday's game results failed to settle the NL Wild Card race once and for all, so we have one more day of regular-season baseball to be played. The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves will face off in a doubleheader Monday, with the Arizona Diamondbacks watching closely; one of the teams playing in the doubleheader will need to pull off a sweep in order for Arizona to make it into the playoffs.

The San Diego Padres have already locked up the No. 1 Wild Card spot and will face the team who earns the No. 2 slot in the NL Wild Card series set to begin Tuesday. If the Mets and Braves split Monday's double-header, the Braves still have the regular-season tiebreaker over New York and will slide into the higher seed.

Here’s how Monday’s Braves-Mets doubleheader affects Phillies playoff situation

David Schoenfield of ESPN.com shared on Monday the clinching scenarios for each of the three teams vying for the final two Wild Card spots. Both the Mets and Braves hold the regular-season tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks, which is why Arizona needs a sweep in order to get in. If the Mets and Braves split the doubleheader, however, all three teams will finish with a 89-73 record, and the Diamondbacks will be out.

In case of a split Monday, the Braves will slot into the No. 5 seed and face the No. 4-seeded Padres in the Wild Card series. The Mets will take the No. 6 seed and face off against the No. 3 Milwaukee Brewers.

If the Mets win both games Monday, they clinch the No. 5 seed and play the Padres in the Wild Card round. The Diamondbacks are the No. 6 seed and play the Brewers in what would be a rematch of last year's NL Wild Card series. If the Braves win both games, they are the No. 5 seed and play the Padres, while the Diamondbacks are the No. 6 seed and play the Brewers.

How does this impact the Phillies, you ask? Philadelphia will host the winner of the Brewers' first-round series in the NLDS beginning Saturday. In other words, there is no scenario in which the Phillies face the Braves in their opening series, as Atlanta is locked into the No. 5 seed if they advance. They will face one of the Brewers, Mets or Diamondbacks, depending on how today –and the rest of this week – shake out.

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