Grading the Phillies' last 5 first-round draft picks
With the 2024 MLB Draft coming up, let's check in to see how the Phillies' most recent first-round draft picks have panned out.
With the first round of the 2024 MLB Draft coming up, it's time for the Philadelphia Phillies front office and scouting department to dig deep and find the next top-end prospect who will eventually don the red pinstripes.
After a stretch of underwhelming selections, the Phillies look to be back on track with their recent early-round picks. Players like Aaron Nola, J.P. Crawford and Mickey Moniak all have contributed to the squad, whether through their play in Philadelphia or the value they drew in trades. Whenever a player is selected in the draft, it brings value to the team, whether in the traditional grow-from-within way or expendable value that can bring more success.
The Phillies will be picking late in the first round at No. 27 due to the run to the National League Championship Series. Although they are slotted deep in the first round, there is plenty of value available, as seen by the selection last year in the same spot. The Phillies will have $7,381,800 in bonus pool money with $3,228,300 being their first-round slot value.
The 2024 MLB Draft begins at 7:00 p.m. ET with the first two rounds taking place Sunday night. Check out our Phillies draft guide for all the details you will need to watch the draft.
Grading the Phillies' last 5 first-round draft picks
Looking back at the Phillies' last five first-round picks, a lot of them are still yet to be determined. They look to have high potential and could provide value in the future, but they haven't done so yet. Most of the rankings will be based on the strides they have taken after their incorporation into the Phillies organization.
Each player brings a unique value and skillset to the team, and the grades are based on the specific player, pick and circumstances surrounding them. For the younger players, grades are subject to volatility as the minor league landscape can change drastically overnight.
Phillies 2019 First Round Draft Pick: Bryson Stott
Pick: 14th overall
School: University of Nevada, Las Vegas
Position: Shortstop
The only player selected in the first round of the previous five drafts to have made their major league debut, Bryson Stott is building the foundation for a long MLB career.
Coming out of UNLV, Stott ranked as the ninth-best prospect in what was a pretty loaded 2019 class. His initial comparisons saw shades of Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford with his ability to do everything above average while also playing a great defensive middle infield. Stott fell to No. 14 where the Phillies ultimately selected him.
The true shortstop-turned-second baseman tore up every level of the minor leagues in 2021 after the 2020 season was canceled due to COVID-19. In 112 games, Stott hit to an OPS of .876 which earned him a crack at third base on opening day over now All-Star Alec Bohm. After a slow start, the 26-year-old has developed a niche as an advanced bat-to-ball hitter with Gold Glove-caliber defense, earning him the everyday spot at second base.
Now in his third MLB season, Stott is providing positive value with a career 6.7 fWAR and countless memorable moments in not only the regular season but the postseason as well. Not often do players crack an MLB roster so quickly after being drafted. Stott has done that and more.
Grade: A-
Phillies 2020 First Round Draft Pick: Mick Abel
Pick: 15th overall
School: Jesuit High School (OR)
Position: Right-handed Pitcher
The Oregon State Gatorade Player of the Year in 2019 has had his ups and downs since joining the Phillies organization in 2020.
Coming out of the draft, Mick Abel was seen as a prospect with one of the highest ceilings in the first round. Like many others, his fastball/slider mix was ahead of his age but his 55-graded control put him in front of other high school arms that usually lack command.
Through his first four seasons in professional baseball, things haven't gone as expected for the 22-year-old. Across all levels of the minor leagues, Abel has pitched to an ERA over four, with his Triple-A ERA sitting at 6.69 in 16 games. His stuff has just not been as expected. In his four seasons, Abel has always been an MLB Pipeline Top 100 prospect but has fluctuated in those rankings.
Season | Prospect Ranking |
|---|---|
2021 | No. 75 |
2022 | No. 81 |
2023 | No. 48 |
2024 | No. 93 |
That being said, at the time it was the right pick, and up until the 2024 season, there had still been a ton of hype and promise surrounding the righty. If Abel is able (no pun intended) to turn his season around and get back on track with his development, he has the potential to be a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter in the big leagues.
Grade: B-
Phillies 2021 First Round Draft Pick: Andrew Painter
Pick: 13th overall
School: Calvary Christian Academy (FL)
Position: Right-handed Pitcher
Another Gatorade Player of the Year, Andrew Painter has been the Phillies' top prospect since he entered the system, debuting as high as the sixth-best prospect in all of baseball in 2023. While he has battled injuries in recent memory, he still reeks of top-end starter potential.
When first drafted, scouts said that Painter had the perfect mix of fantastic stuff and the ability to pitch, something that not many high schoolers have. After being drafted 13th overall, he immediately jumped into the Top 10 prospects in baseball, and everyone was made aware of his talent. His 6-foot-7 frame allows for fluid mechanics and easy energy transfer to the ball.
After undergoing Tommy John surgery in July of 2023, there hasn't been much news about the Florida native, almost waiting in the woods for his chance to prove what he can really do. In his 25 professional games within the Phillies minor league system, Painter has pitched to a 2.05 ERA over 109 2/3 innings and has stuck out 167 batters. When Painter returns, he will still only be 22 years old and will quickly make his trek towards the big league team.
Right now the grade is probably lower than it should be, but the uncertainty of his recovery from injury hurts his case slightly.
Grade: B+
Phillies 2022 First Round Draft Pick: Justin Crawford
Pick: 17th overall
School: Bishop Gorman High School (NV)
Position: Outfield
Whenever there is a son of a former MLB All-Star available, it usually is the right pick to go with the kid. That being said, Justin Crawford has already begun to make a name for himself across baseball after being drafted just two years ago.
In his short time in the minors, the Arizona native has hit over .300 with an .800+ OPS while playing an elite center field and being one of the biggest nuisances on the base paths. In only 161 games between Single-A and High-A, Crawford has stolen 76 bases, more than last season's MLB leader Ronald Acuna Jr. His floor is higher than most as his defense and speed give him an edge, much like that of Johan Rojas.
Currently ranked as the No. 55 prospect by MLB Pipeline, the left-handed hitter looks to continue his rise up the ranks toward the top of the list as he has started to generate more power behind his swings, consistently finding gaps for extra bases and hitting the ball over the wall at a much higher clip than before.
This was the second straight year that Crawford participated in the MLB Futures Game, making him a top prospect to watch in baseball. Another player with little history to go off but a great pedigree behind him.
Grade: B
2023 Phillies First Round Draft Pick: Aidan Miller
Pick: 27th overall
School: J.W. Mitchell High School (FL)
Position: Shortstop/Third Base
Aidan Miller, the Phillies' new prized possession, was one of the top steals of the draft in 2023. Coming off a senior season where he broke his hamate bone, Miller, originally ranked as the 13th best prospect in the draft, fell all the way to No. 27, where the Phillies were able to snag him.
After being ranked as the No. 61 prospect to begin 2024, the 20-year-old has jumped to No. 27 on MLB Pipeline's Top 100 rankings and the Phillies No. 2, and for good reason. His ability to have good at-bats and drive the ball makes him a plus all-around player. He has above-average raw power and the ability to hit high velocity.
Miller was also selected to the 2024 Futures Game, pairing up with Crawford as two of the Phillies' top prospects. His draft position isn't indicative of who he is as a player or his future value. Miller is encroaching on top-20 status and has already accelerated his development, causing Pipeline to change his expected ETA down a year to 2027.
People around baseball and the Phillies front office are starting to take note of the kid as it has been reported that the Phillies see Miller as "untouchable" in trade packages this deadline. As long as Miller continues to be durable at the professional level and grows into his frame, his ability to do everything well, along with plus-hitting, could make him a staple in the Phillies lineup in the future.
Grade: A
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