Now over halfway through the season, any hopes the Philadelphia Phillies had of winning the NL East have all but been squashed by the red-hot Atlanta Braves, who now sit 29 games over .500 and lead the division by a healthy eight-game margin.
Luckily, Bryce Harper and company still have a shot at a Wild Card spot, according to FanGraphs' playoff odds.
The continuously updating playoff odds give the third-place Phillies a minuscule 0.7 percent chance of winning the division. While baseball is full of crazy turnarounds, it would require a minor miracle and a historic collapse by the Braves, who currently hold a 98.4 percent chance of taking the NL East title.
If you're curious how FanGraphs creates their playoff odds, check out David Appelman's write-up.
Note: Probability and odds are not the same. The numbers discussed here are the probability, or chance, of the outcomes occurring. The term "odds" is used loosely, as these aren't the actual odds of the outcomes.
Phillies' Wild Card odds look promising
FanGraphs projects the 45-39 Phillies to finish with an 86.4-75.6 record, good for a rest-of-season .531 winning percentage. That would put them a game behind the Marlins and give them a 58.1 percent chance of making the postseason.
After a 7-3 stretch over their last 10 games, the Phillies now hold the third Wild Card spot, their .536 winning percentage just ahead of the San Francisco Giants and Milwaukee Brewers. If you look at the Wild Card-specific projections, they're in decent shape.
Of the teams currently in contention, they have the second-best odds of clinching a Wild Card berth at 57.4 percent. Unfortunately, the team ahead of them is the pesky Marlins squad, who currently hold the top Wild Card position and have taken two of the first three games between the division rivals this year.
The good news for Philadelphia? They still have 10 games left against Miami, giving them plenty of opportunity to knock the fish from Florida out of the top spot as the two teams will be battling for second in NL East down the stretch.
Considering that before the season they were given a 39.5 percent chance of a Wild Card, things look promising for a Philly team that is being given only a 3.8 percent chance of winning the World Series.
As Phillies fans know, this team can do some damage if they can make it into the postseason.
Just like they did last fall.