Dream Phillies starting rotation for the 2024 season
The Philadelphia Phillies were just one win away from winning their second straight National League pennant. While the starting rotation wasn't the main reason why the team fell short in its quest, it doesn't appear to be in the best shape heading into the 2023 offseason.
Aaron Nola, a key cog even with his down year, is officially a free agent after rejecting his qualifying offer. Anything can happen, but it feels like the odds of him returning are pretty slim at this point.
Philadelphia must find a Nola replacement to compliment Zack Wheeler at the front of the rotation, while also building a strong enough back end so the team isn't relying on the bullpen to record so many outs in playoff games.
Dream Phillies starting rotation for the 2024 season
There's almost no chance this dream rotation actually takes shape, but it's not an impossibility. This would give the Phillies the best chance to win in 2024 with a rotation that would pretty easily be the best in the game.
Ace: Zack Wheeler
Zack Wheeler has been, and will continue to be, the ace of this staff no matter who they sign or trade for. He has become one of the best pitchers in recent Phillies memory, and one of the best postseason pitchers of all time.
Wheeler wasn't quite as dominant in the regular season as in years past, but he still made 32 starts, had 192 innings pitched, and led all MLB pitchers with 5.9 fWAR. That's a pretty successful season, even if the ERA was a bit higher than usual. Wheeler even added a Gold Glove to his ledger, something he had never won before.
The Phillies ace continued to be stupidly good in the postseason, allowing two runs or fewer in all five of his appearances and posting a 1.95 ERA. His 1 2/3 scoreless innings out of the bullpen not only were the first innings he had thrown out of the bullpen in the major leagues, but it also gave Philadelphia a chance to come back and win that game against Arizona. They didn't, but Wheeler gave them every chance.
He might be 33 years old, but Wheeler remains one of the best pitchers in the National League. As he enters the final year of his contract, we can only wonder what the future holds. For now, let's get excited for what will hopefully be another 30+ starts and 180+ innings from Wheeler in 2024 (plus postseason success).
No. 2: Corbin Burnes
The first external name on this list is Corbin Burnes. Is a Burnes trade likely? Probably not. Despite that, it's hard to make a dream rotation without Burnes being a part of it.
Philadelphia trading for Burnes would come with a major flaw that could stop them from executing the deal. He's in the final year of team control. Normally, that wouldn't be an issue for a Phillies team that has not been shy about spending money, but with Wheeler's contract expiring as well, that creates a ton of uncertainty regarding the front of this rotation. Whether the Phillies will want to deal with that remains to be seen.
If they're just looking to field the best rotation in 2024, Burnes should be a part of it. It looks like the Brewers are looking to become sellers (subscription required) this offseason, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, and Burnes could be a major part of that.
By acquiring Burnes, the Phillies would be adding one of the best pitchers in all of baseball to take Aaron Nola's spot. He has proven to be durable in recent years and is still on the right side of 30. He's a player the Phillies could acquire for fairly cheap (cheap for a player of Burnes' caliber) due to his contract status and could extend him to a longer-term deal to lead their rotation for years to come. The best part is that he's already been linked to the Phillies (subscription required).
No. 3: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
The Phillies are going to sign a frontline starter this offseason. That's pretty much a fact at this point. Whether they bring back Nola or look to bring in a different starter remains to be seen. But what we do know is Zack Wheeler won't be the only star in this rotation.
Burnes might be a bit unrealistic, but the Phillies signing a player like Yoshinobu Yamamoto is far from it. Outside of Shohei Ohtani, this right-hander is arguably the biggest star from Japan headed to MLB. He's done historic things in Japan and has yet to hit the prime of his career.
Yamamoto has won Japan's Cy Young Award in each of the last three seasons. This season, he posted a 1.21 ERA in 23 starts and 164 innings pitched for the Orix Buffaloes. He finished his season allowing one run in nine innings in Game 6 of the Japan Series with 14 strikeouts to force a Game 7.
While Yamamoto will likely not have quite as insane numbers as he had in Japan, he certainly profiles as a frontline starter. He was much better than Mets star Kodai Senga, who had an outstanding year in his first season in North America.
The best part about Yamamoto is he's just 25 years old. Most free agents, including Aaron Nola, are around 30 years old or older. Even if the Phillies give him the seven or eight years he'll likely be seeking, he'll still be in his prime by the time his contract expires. Adding Burnes, who is only projected to make around $15 million in 2024, gives the Phillies the financial flexibility to also add a top free agent arm like Yamamoto.
No. 4: Ranger Suárez
As fun as it would be to add another top-end free agent starter to the fold, that'd be completely unrealistic. Plus, you really can't go wrong with Ranger Suárez as a fourth starter. Since being inserted into the rotation full-time at the end of the 2021 season, the southpaw has emerged as a legitimate mid-rotation arm.
This past season, he dealt with injuries, but when healthy was mainly effective. He had a 4.18 ERA in 22 starts and 125 innings pitched. He went at least five innings in all but four of his starts and allowed three runs or fewer in 15 of the 22 outings. Most of the time, he was good for at least five innings allowing three runs or fewer, which, in other words, gives this team a chance to win.
As he did last season, Suárez took his game to another level in the postseason, posting a 1.93 ERA in his four starts as the Phillies third starter. He's shown value both in the rotation and out of the bullpen in the postseason, which helps a lot.
Having Suárez as a fourth starter would be a luxury not many teams in the league have. While he'll likely be the team's third starter, it's always fun to dream.
No. 5: Taijuan Walker
Taijuan Walker's first season in Philadelphia had its highs and lows. To begin the season, he was practically unusable. A 6.53 ERA through his nine starts had Dave Dombrowski regretting the signing early. After a clunker in San Francisco, the right-hander turned his season around by posting a 2.74 ERA in his next 14 outings, pitching like an All-Star.
Walker struggled in his final eight starts to finish the year, which caused him to not only be bumped from their postseason rotation, but Walker didn't make a single playoff appearance during their run to the NLCS. Cristopher Sánchez earned a start over him, which is something no Phillies fan expected entering the year.
While it can certainly be argued that Sánchez should be in this rotation over Walker, trusting the experienced right-hander is what makes the most sense to me. Having Sánchez be the team's sixth starter, if they sign Yamamoto, or act in a swingman role that can work out of the bullpen and start games would give Rob Thomson some added flexibility Walker has no history of providing.
The Phillies obviously hope Walker can be more consistent in 2024, and in the event that he gets off to a slow start in this dream rotation, Sánchez is there to serve as an obvious replacement.
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