Does Rob Thomson's extension signal the Phillies' window for winning with this core?
The Phillies extended Rob Thomson through 2025 on Monday. His new contract may indicate the front office's view on the club's championship window.
The Hot Stove has been relatively cool to this point in the offseason. The Philadelphia Phillies' only major on-field move was re-signing Aaron Nola to a seven-year, $172 million deal in November. The Winter Meetings — which can be a catalyst for teams to begin making big moves — began on Sunday. The Phillies' only move since then was extending manager Rob Thomson through the 2025 season.
Since taking over for Joe Girardi in early June of 2022, Thomson has steered the club towards success. He is 154-118 since he took over at the helm in the regular season and has led the club to back-to-back postseason appearances. In both cases, the Phillies made deep playoff runs but ultimately fell short of their World Series goal.
Thomson has typically pressed the right buttons to help the club improve and succeed, however, he has received help from the front office and ownership and has benefitted from a star-studded roster. The Phillies have had a top-five payroll since the 2021 season. John Middleton has invested in the team and has made it clear he is willing to spend to win.
How long can a high payroll sustain an organization? It varies from team to team, but typically it's not a wise choice to hover into the luxury tax thresholds for an extended period. While monetary penalties start to set in, loss of draft picks or forfeiture of draft capital could impact a club's long-term health. That brings into question what the championship window is for this Phillies core.
Phillies staying level-headed with current luxury tax status
The first luxury tax threshold for the 2024 season sits at $237 million. The Phillies will exceed that threshold prior to the beginning of the season.
Destiny Lugardo of Phillies Nation put out a comprehensive breakdown of the club's projected payroll heading into the upcoming season. Between guaranteed contracts, arbitration projections, pre-arbitration raises, and other expenses, it's likely the Phillies will be just around $4 million short of the second luxury tax tier and about $24 million to play with before reaching the more penal third tier.
This doesn't give the club much wiggle room when it comes to other signings or in-season salary increases. That's not to say that Middleton and company would not surpass the second or third tier — they will if the move gives the team a shot at a trophy. The money is just one part of going into the higher tiers of the luxury tax. If the Phillies finish in the third tier of the tax threshold, their highest draft pick gets moved back ten spots.
That is a significant punitive measure if a team wants to sustain long-term success. The Phillies will not likely want to linger in that range for more than a few years. This could influence the front office to go big or go home in the next two or three years while a bulk of the team's core remains intact.
NEXT: The Phillies' aging core will determine their World Series window.
Phillies' aging core will determine their World Series window
The Phillies' core is as strong as it has been since the Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, and Cole Hamels days. With a mixture of experienced vets and young and upcoming talent, the Phillies' core is somewhat diverse.
The club's offensive core includes long-term players such as Bryce Harper and Trea Turner — both of whom will be in Philadelphia for the foreseeable future. In the short term, J.T. Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, and Kyle Schwarber play huge roles in the offense but are in the last year or two of their contracts with the club. Younger players in their pre-arbitration or early arbitration-eligible years are Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, and Brandon Marsh.
The pitching staff now has Nola signed long-term, Zack Wheeler — who is due to hit free agency after the season — Taijuan Walker, Ranger Suárez, and Cristopher Sánchez to anchor the starting staff. Relievers Seranthony Domínguez, José Alvarado, Jeff Hoffman, and Orion Kerkering all have some more time with the club as well.
With this Phillies team, the core seems much larger than in previous years. The issue is that some of these core players could be gone in a year or two, and quite a few are already over 30 years old. While the Phillies have some developing prospects in the minor leagues, none of those players are guaranteed success in the big leagues. Even though this tight-knit group has not achieved the ultimate goal, they have amassed success that the Phillies have not seen in years.
Thomson feels that this group has the potential to win a World Series. During his post-extension press conference in Nashville on Tuesday, the Phillies manager discussed why he's content with bringing back much of last year's roster.
"I think you're going to get a better Stott, a better Bohm, the younger guys are going to improve a little bit," Thomson said. "And you know you've got a full year of Trea, that's going to be Trea, hopefully. And you're going to have Harper for a full year hopefully. I really like our roster. I felt like we had a great chance at winning a World Series and it really hurts me that we didn't."
It's clear that the players like playing for Thomson; he lets the clubhouse thrive and the guys on the team mesh well together. It's no surprise that Dave Dombrowski chose to give his skipper the chance to manage this group of players while they are together for another year or two.
It remains to be seen as to whether or not the 2024 Phillies will be the team to end the club's 15-year World Series drought, but the pieces are in place for another successful run.
The future is bright, with some highly touted prospects and a much better player development program. While many will be sad to see the inevitable break up of this core group, infusing young players will open up more financial flexibility for future success. Until that happens, however, enjoy this group and see if Thomson can be the next manager to hoist the World Series trophy on a stage in front of a frenzied Citizen's Bank Park.
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