Phillies or Braves: Who has the better rotation after Atlanta's Chris Sale trade?
The Braves made a big trade to bring in Chris Sale, but does that mean the division rival has a better rotation than the Phillies?
The Philadelphia Phillies' NL East rival and six-time defending division champion Atlanta Braves recently made news by trading for Chris Sale from the Boston Red Sox. The move was met with surprise and, specifically for Phillies fans, concern that this addition has widened the gap between the two teams.
The Phillies and Braves are seen as the class of the NL East right now and maybe even of the entire National League, along with the Dodgers. Starting pitching will always be a big influence on how a team performs through the regular season and playoffs.
The Braves, in recent memory, have been known to make smart, sensible, and promising moves that have contributed to their prolonged success, so why would we expect this trade to be any different?
Sure, on paper, adding the hard-throwing lefty to this already dangerous starting rotation seems like a great move. But dig in deeper and it might not be as open-and-close as one might think.
The Phillies, in their own right, have a very strong starting rotation with their top two aces, under-the-radar performers, and a mix of veterans and young guys who can contribute. According to FanGraphs, the Phillies and Braves actually project out as having two of the best starting rotations in 2024.
After the acquisition of Sale, the Braves are projected to have the best starting rotation in Major League Baseball, with the Phillies a close second. When factoring in the depth spots of the starting rotations outside the top five, the combined fWAR between all of the projected Braves starters is 16.1 while the total fWAR for all of the Phillies' projected starters is 15.3.
It’s extremely tight when looking at the totality but even tighter when looking at just the top five. The Phillies' top five starters actually have a higher combined fWAR at 14.9 than the Braves' top five, who have a projected 14.6 fWAR.
So how do these two rotations stack up pitcher by pitcher?
Zack Wheeler vs Spencer Strider
Wheeler: 4.8 projected 2024 fWAR
Strider: 4.9 projected 2024 fWAR
As No. 1 pitchers go, Zack Wheeler and Spencer Strider top the list. According to FanGraphs' 2024 starting pitcher projections, Strider is ranked first, and Wheeler is ranked second.
Strider, a 25-year-old right-hander, finished fourth this past year in Cy Young voting. He ended the year with a 3.86 ERA, which doesn’t jump off the page, but he pitched to a 2.85 FIP, which was the second-best in baseball. He led the league with 281 strikeouts, a 13.5 SO/9, and 20 wins. He registered a 5.5 fWAR, second behind Wheeler.
He has only pitched in 65 career games but has made a name for himself as one of the premier arms in the entire MLB. He has the stuff to be dominant and be a problem for the Phillies for a long time.
As early as Strider is in his career, Wheeler is the opposite, having been on top of his game for quite some time. The 33-year-old has appeared in 227 career games, and his last four years since he joined the Phillies have been downright mesmerizing. He has been the definition of consistency since he signed his five-year deal in the 2019-2020 offseason.
In 2023, Wheeler finished sixth in Cy Young voting and won the Gold Glove Award for the first time in his career. He finished the season with a 3.61 ERA. However, like Strider, his FIP and WHIP were low, coming in at 3.15 and 1.078, respectively.
As mentioned before, Strider was second in the MLB in fWAR, finishing just behind the Phillies ace, who registered a 5.9 fWAR, edging out his younger rival.
These two will be at the helm of their respective rotations for the 2024 season, and it will be neck and neck on who comes out on top as the better pitcher.
Aaron Nola vs Max Fried
Nola: 4.3 projected 2024 fWAR
Fried: 3.5 projected 2024 fWAR
The next guys up in each of these rotations are as high-quality No. 2 pitchers as you can get. Both Aaron Nola and Max Fried were the aces of their rotations at one point in their careers and can easily be the best pitchers for stretches on their respective teams.
That being said, Nola ranks third in total innings pitched over the last three seasons with 579 1/3 innings, while Fried ranks 49th with 428 2/3 innings. Nola has been one of the most consistent workhorses, but the quality of those innings has slipped recently. Fried, when available, has been effective and as solid as can be.
In 2023, Fried made 14 starts in the regular season, pitching to a 2.55 ERA, 1.113 WHIP, and 3.14 FIP — numbers that a team’s ace puts up. The year before, when he started 30 games, he had a 2.48 ERA, finished second in Cy Young voting and won the Gold Glove. If he can avoid injury and pitch a full slate in 2024, the Braves have one of the best one-two punches in baseball.
Nola, on the other hand, has fallen off a bit when looking at his numbers. He has glimpses of greatness and stretches where he's untouchable but falls apart far too often when he’s needed the most. In 2023, Nola ended the regular season with a 4.46 ERA, 4.03 FIP, and a 1.151 WHIP while striking out 202 batters over 193 2/3 innings.
Simply put, Aaron Nola needs to be better in 2024 and the Phillies are counting on it. They handed him a new seven-year deal worth $172 million. They are depending on him to find his magic again and be the pitcher they know he can be.
Ranger Suárez vs Chris Sale
Suárez: 2.3 projected 2024 fWAR
Sale: 2.8 projected 2024 fWAR
The third starter and beyond is really where the two rotations are up for grabs. As mentioned in the open, the Braves recently made news by trading for the former Red Sox pitcher. In the past, Sale has been one of the top arms in the league.
From 2012 through 2018, Sale made the All-Star team and received Cy Young votes each year and even received MVP votes in the years from 2015-2018. In 2018, he had a 2.11 ERA, 1.98 FIP, and 0.861 WHIP. Simply dominant. But since then, from 2019-2023, he has pitched a total of 56 games while registering a 4.16 ERA, 3.56 FIP, and 1.136 WHIP — hardly resembling the pitcher the Red Sox originally traded for.
To say that the addition of Chris Sale puts the Braves well above the rest of the league is ignoring the level that Sale has pitched to in recent years and, maybe even more important, his availability due to injury.
On the other side, the Phillies’ Ranger Suárez has been one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. He is, what we like to call, a big-game pitcher. His playoff versus regular season numbers are drastically different with his playoff numbers being significantly better. His career ERA in the regular season is 3.41 over 134 games, while in the playoffs it's 1.62 over nine games.
In 2021, when the calm lefty came onto the scene, he finished the year with a 1.36 ERA, 2.72 FIP, and 1.00 WHIP over 39 games (12 starts). In the next two years, over 51 games, he registered a 3.88 ERA, 3.88 FIP, and a 1.370 WHIP.
Needless to say, he hasn’t jumped off the screen for an entire season, but there are periods within each year that scream All-Star. He has the ability to be the third starter on a championship team; it’s just a matter if he can put it all together.
Taijuan Walker vs Charlie Morton
Walker: 1.6 projected 2024 fWAR
Morton: 2.2 projected 2024 fWAR
Both teams will be relying on a veteran pitcher in the fourth rotation spot in 2024. Taijuan Walker and Charlie Morton have had up and down careers, with periods of stellar performance followed by head-scratching stretches of mediocrity.
Morton has been in the league for 16 years and has spent the last three seasons with the Braves. He has a career ERA of 4.00, with a 1.305 WHIP, and 8.6 SO/9. Just overall solid, dependable, and consistent stuff that’s kept him in the league.
In 2023, he had a 3.64 ERA over 30 starts and gave the Braves all that they needed to run away with the best record in the regular season. He won't blow hitters away but knows how to use his repertoire to get through games and, most importantly, win games.
Taijuan Walker is actually very similar to Charlie Morton but without quite the same career longevity, yet. He has been in the majors for 11 years and has a career ERA of 3.97, with a 1.239 WHIP, and 7.9 SO/9. His teams have been able to rely on him to deliver innings and work deep into games.
His best season came in 2020 when he ended the year with a 2.70 ERA and 1.163 WHIP but hasn’t had the same success since. After signing a four-year deal for $72 million with the Phillies last year, he came in with high expectations but didn’t quite live up to it.
The right-hander ended the season with a 4.38 ERA, an elevated 4.53 FIP, and a high 1.309 WHIP. The Phillies are looking to get more out of their veteran pitcher for 2024 and hope he can provide the value they expected when they gave him $18 million a year.
Cristopher Sánchez vs Bryce Elder
Sánchez: 1.9 projected 2024 fWAR
Elder: 1.2 projected 2024 fWAR
While both teams rely on veteran pitching in their fourth rotation spot, they similarly will be relying on young guns in their fifth spot. Cristopher Sánchez has made a total of 41 starts over three years, with his rookie year being 2022. Bryce Elder has also made the exact same number of starts but over just two years and his rookie year was also 2022.
In 2023, Elder made 31 starts and pitched to a 3.81 ERA, 4.42 FIP, and 1.277 WHIP. In his first full season, he was elected to the All-Star game and was a major contributor to Atlanta's success. At just 24 years old, the Braves will certainly look for him to take the next step and become a perennial All-Star. Knowing the Braves, he’ll probably sign a team-friendly, long-term deal.
Sanchez started the 2023 season in Triple-A but was called up originally as a spot starter. Over 19 games (18 starts), he ended the season with a 3.44 ERA and 1.099 WHIP. He was such an unexpected bright spot for the team that they opted to not take a big swing at the trade deadline to upgrade the starting rotation.
At the moment, the Phillies are giving the 27-year-old lefty an opportunity at the fifth starter spot and hope he grabs the job and doesn’t let go.
These teams match up very closely across the board and it’s no different for the starting pitching. It’s going to be fun to watch it play out over the course of the season. Both teams may not even be finished adding to their rotations as the Phillies have been rumored to be looking into the likes of Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. Only time will tell which one of these rotations will push their team to the next level.
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