The Arizona Diamondbacks took the first of three from the Philadelphia Phillies on Monday night, 6-3, but there are still two games to play at Citizen's Bank Park.
The Phillies will hand the ball to Matt Strahm, who will open this game with a turn around the order or so, and hope to continue his strong start to the 2023 season against an emerging Diamondbacks lineup. Arizona will counter with Ryne Nelson, who is in his first full big league season.
Can the Phillies loaded lineup knock around the D-Backs starter, or will Arizona's offense get to Philadelphia's collective group of pitchers? Let's break it all down by first checking out the odds:
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds, run line and total
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies prediction and pick
Strahm has been lights out in his versatile role, posting a 2.73 ERA in six starts and 11 overall appearances. He is striking out a career best 12.8 batters per nine innings while walking fewer than three.
He'll face a Diamondbacks lineup that is elite in most hitting metrics, including on-base percentage (eighth) and strikeout rate (fourth). The team puts the ball in play and gets on base at a high level. However, the team is going to be behind in terms of pitching.
Nelson has made nine starts this season and has struggled to find his punch out pitch, striking out six batters per nine innings and allowing 10 hits in the same time frame. He has posted a 5.48 ERA this year with an expected ERA (xERA) of 4.60, so his number is a bit inflated mainly because he can't avoid barrel's. Nelson is allowing a home run on more than 13% of fly balls allowed.
In a hitter friendly park like Citizen's Bank, I'm going to trust the Phillies offense to get it done, but I can't say the same for the team's bullpen, which rates out right around league average in terms of ERA.
The D-Backs can neutralize Strahm early with the team's discipline at the plate and generate run scoring chances against a mediocre pen.
I like the over on Tuesday night.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.