Diamondbacks vs. Phillies prediction and odds for NLCS Game 6 (Trust Aaron Nola)

The Philadelphia Phillies have a major advantage on the mound in Game 6.
Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola.
Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola. / Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

The Philadelphia Phillies are one win away from returning to the World Series, and they’ll get two chances at home to do so after winning Game 5 of the NLCS in Arizona. 

The Arizona Diamondbacks are looking to keep their storybook season going, and the team will have one of its best pitchers in Merrill Kelly on the mound for Game 6. Kelly ruffled some feathers with his comments about the crowd noise ahead of Game 2, and Arizona was promptly crushed in that matchup, losing 10-0. 

Kelly will be opposed by Aaron Nola, who is making a great case to get paid – and paid well – in his contract year. The Phillies righty has been lights out this postseason, allowing just two runs in three starts. 

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies probable pitchers for NLCS Game 6

  • Arizona: Merrill Kelly (righty) – 12-8, 3.29 ERA
  • Philadelphia: Aaron Nola (righty) – 12-9, 4.46 ERA

Kelly has allowed four runs across 12 innings of work in two starts this postseason. All four runs were allowed in Game 2 of the NLCS against Philly. 

Nola has a 0.96 ERA in three postseason starts in 2023. He tossed six innings of shutout baseball in Game 2 against Arizona. 

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Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds, run line and total

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies prediction and pick

The Phillies are a perfect 6-0 at home this postseason, and I don’t see that changing in Game 6. 

Nola gives Philly a massive advantage on the mound with how well he’s pitched this postseason, and his advanced numbers back it up. 

He’s posted a 1.70 Fielding Independent Pitching this postseason, allowing just 12 hits and two walks in 18.2 innings of work. 

The Philly offense has been a little more consistent than Arizona in this series, and I can’t look past the advantage the Phillies have in the bullpen as well. 

Arizona has a 3.60 bullpen ERA this postseason, the fifth worst mark of any team that reached the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Philly bullpen has held up to the tune of a 2.29 bullpen ERA, the best mark of any remaining team. 

I think Philly closes things out at home tonight. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.