The Philadelphia Phillies jumped on the Arizona Diamondbacks in Game 1 of the NLCS, with Kyle Schwarber’s lead off home run setting the tone for the team in a 5-3 victory.
Philly scored four runs in the first three innings of the game, but we still saw just eight combined runs in the contest.
That resulted in the OVER hitting on the total, but the pitching from Zack Wheeler was elite, as he struck eight over six innings of work.
Arizona and Philly have another great pitching matchup on tap in Game 2, as Aaron Nola gets the ball for the home team against Arizona’s Merrill Kelly.
The Phillies are favored in this matchup, and they’d love to take a 2-0 series lead before heading to Arizona for Game 3.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies probable pitchers for NLCS Game 2
- Arizona: Merrill Kelly (righty) – 12-8, 3.29 ERA
- Philadelphia: Aaron Nola (righty) – 12-9, 4.46 ERA
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Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds, run line and total
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies prediction and pick
I took the UNDER in Game 1 of this series and just missed – it was set at 7.5 runs – but I’m going back to the well with the same total in Game 2.
I trust both of these starters to keep these lineups in check, especially since Nola (4.46 ERA in the regular season) has looked good in the playoffs.
The right-hander has allowed just two runs and nine hits in 12.2 innings of work, holding the Atlanta Braves’ vaunted offense to just two runs in his last start. He threw seven shutout innings against the Miami Marlins in the wild card.
Arizona’s young offense struggled against an elite pitcher in Wheeler, and the team mustered just four total hits in Game 1. I don’t see the D-Backs jumping on Nola, especially on the road.
Nola was much better at home this season, posting a 3.29 ERA compared to a 5.43 mark away from Citizens Bank Park.
I also trust Kelly in this spot, even against a tough Philly offense. The veteran threw 6.1 innings of shutout ball in his lone postseason start against the Dodgers, and he allowed two or fewer runs in five of his final six starts of the regular season.
After a 5-3 result in Game 1, I think we see another lower-scoring matchup in Game 2.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.